三峡枢纽航运突发事件船舶交通应急调控方法研究

Navigational emergency of Three Gorges hub results in the serious conflict of vessel traffic, rapid crisis diffusion, difficult adjustment and great social pressure. The research aims to study and solve the emergency adjustment and control problem of vessel traffic with navigational emergency of Three Gorges hub, and the base of research is the optimum flow assignments between the demand of vessel transportation and the supply of navigation capacity. Firstly, a framework for emergency adjustment and control of vessel traffic is established based on benders decomposition and robust optimization with scenario-driven and reconstruction of navigational emergency, and is used to explore and realize the game optimization on the optimum flow assignments of supply and demand. For bounded rational selection of the demand of vessel transportation, the generalized perceptual impedance of links based on foreground theory is modeled, and the user equilibrium traffic assignment model is established. Accordingly the multi-path allocation method based on Logit is designed to solve the regulation of vessel traffic pressure transfer. For the supply of navigation capacity of Three Gorges hub, the navigation impedance of links on chambers and legs is modeled, and the system optimum flow assignment model is established. Accordingly the multi-path allocation method based on hyper heuristic is designed to adjust the spatio-temporal equilibrium distribution of vessel traffic flow density. Finally, we develop the emergency adjustment and control simulation experiment platform of vessel traffic to confirm these theories and methods presented by us with aids of comparison experiment, computational simulation and empirical study. The research results achieve the methods of emergency adjustment and control of vessel traffic and crisis management of vessel traffic, enrich the knowledge system of vessel traffic organization and management, and promote the navigation efficiency of Three Gorges hub.

针对三峡枢纽航运突发事件所导致的船舶交通冲突严重、扩散快、调控难、社会压力大等现状，开展以船舶交通供需匹配最优配流为基础的应急调控研究。首先结合航运突发事件场景快速重构及其场景驱动，构建基于Benders分解和鲁棒优化的船舶交通应急调控框架，探究船舶出行需求与通航能力供给之间供需匹配的博弈优化机理；针对船舶出行需求的有限理性选择，构建基于前景理论的广义感知阻抗和用户均衡配流模型，设计基于Logit的多径路分配方法，实现船舶交通压力转移调控；针对通航能力供给的三峡两坝协同调度，构建两坝闸室、航段的通航阻抗和系统最优配流模型，设计基于超启发的多径路分配方法，实现船舶交通流密度均衡分布调控；开发应急调控仿真平台，运用计算机仿真、比对与实证相结合的实验手段，验证项目所提出的理论与方法。研究成果可形成船舶交通应急调控和危机管理的理论与方法，丰富船舶交通组织管理的知识体系，促进长江三峡通航效率提升。

由于三峡枢纽航运突发事件及其通航管制所引起的船舶积压停航待闸，使船舶交通呈现船流结构性持续不均的特点，三峡枢纽通航安全及其应急调度压力极大。为了确保三峡两坝间的通航安全，长江三峡通航管理局实施“堵两头、保中间”的船舶交通组织应急管理策略，不利于三峡、葛洲坝两头待闸船舶的有效疏导与危机应对。而三峡通航设施（升船机、双线五级船闸、三线单级船闸）的适配船型、闸室能力等存在差异，又进一步加大了船舶交通组织应急管理的实施难度。结合具有中国特色的三峡-葛洲坝通航调度及其船舶交通应急组织的实践，本研究采用从实际中提出问题、从问题中抽象模型、从模型中挖掘理论的研究思路，提出三峡枢纽航运突发事件船舶交通应急调控决策问题，依次开展基于场景的三峡枢纽船舶交通应急调控框架、面向UE配流的三峡枢纽船舶交通应急调控、面向SO配流的三峡枢纽船舶交通应急调控、船舶交通应急调控仿真平台构建等方面的研究。其中，应急调控框架是通过航运突发事件场景驱动的，能够整合UE配流和SO配流，通过船舶交通压力转移和船舶交通流密度合理分布的应急调控及其博弈优化，实现供需双方最优配流的纳什均衡。项目按计划执行，完成各项指标，共发表和录用论文24篇，其中SCI期刊论文11篇（2篇高被引），中文核心期刊论文9篇（含中国工程院院刊1篇），其它期刊论文4篇；发明专利4项，软件著作权2项；与长江三峡通航管理局合作，参与出版专著一部；构建三峡枢纽船舶交通应急调控仿真平台，研发内河航运安全监控的船舶精确识别、多目标跟踪和船舶待闸时长预测系列方法，通过2项校企合作项目，实现成果转化；培养博士、硕士研究生8名。项目研究丰富了大型通航枢纽公共安全与危机管理的理论体系，为船舶通航调度应急管理提供了新的方法，为提升长江三峡通航应急管理与危机应对水平、缓解三峡枢纽通航压力提供了新思路，为内河大型枢纽船舶交通应急调控提供新的理论和技术支持。