生态系统服务供需耦合关系研究——以伊河流域为例

The unsustainable way in natural ecosystems utilizing has aggravated the contradiction between ecosystem services (ES) supply and social demand, which has caused unreasonable land use, giving rise to various ecological and environmental problems. The theoretical guidance of solving localization problems is lacked, which put a threat to regional sustainable development and residents' well-being, so the study of strengthening the relationships between ES supply and demand has become an urgent need in theory and practice. In the project, we will choose Yihe River Basin as the study area, which is a mountain–hill–plain landscape and located in the north-south transition zone. Based on model simulation and questionnaire survey, we will identify the pattern of ES supply and demand. Using Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response model and ES bundle, we will reveal the coupling relationship and driving mechanism between ES supply and demand to explore effective ways for the ES continued growth. The ES-related studies have developed to the direction of deep coupling with socio-economic systems. Different from the previous study only focusing on ES supply, but from the coupled perspective of supply and demand, we will fully understand the ES supply-side and demand-side, which is helpful to successfully link ES and human well-beings to formulate scientific decisions and management practices.

人类社会对自然生态系统的过多索取和不当管理加剧生态系统服务供需矛盾，造成土地利用方式不合理，引发各种生态环境问题，解决这些问题根源的本土化诉求缺乏相应的理论指导，危及区域可持续发展和居民福祉，加强生态系统服务供需关系的研究成为理论和实践的急需。项目拟以位于南北过渡带、具有“山地—丘陵—平原”景观的河南省伊河流域为研究区，基于模型模拟和问卷调查等手段，识别流域生态系统服务供需格局，运用驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应模型及生态系统服务簇的研究方法，揭示生态系统服务供需耦合关系及驱动机制，探索生态系统服务效益持续增长的有效途径。目前生态系统服务的研究已经向着与社会经济系统深度耦合的方向发展，项目不同于以往从供方角度研究生态系统服务，而以供需耦合视角为切入点，集成生态系统服务供给和需求，有助于成功链接生态系统服务与人类福祉形成科学的政策建议和管理实践。

生态系统服务的供需矛盾造成土地利用方式不合理，引发各种生态环境问题，制约和影响流域可持续发展和居民福祉提升，加强生态系统服务供需关系的研究具有重大意义。以具有“山地—丘陵—平原”景观的河南省伊河流域为研究区，基于模型模拟和问卷调研开展生态系统服务供需耦合关系研究。主要结论如下：(1) 2000-2018年伊河流域产水、固碳和土壤保持服务的西南地区高于东北地区且上游的产水服务供给能力较强，下游食物生产的供给能力高于上中游地区。(2) 2000-2018年伊河流域产水、固碳和食物生产需求量下游>中游>上游，而土壤保持服务需求大的区域主要分布在地形起伏度大或植被覆盖率低区域。（3）2000-2018年伊河流域食物生产、产水、固碳和土壤保持服务供需空间不匹配。（4）2000-2018年伊河流域产水和固碳服务供给量减少，食物生产和土壤保持服务供给量增加，4种生态系统服务的需求量都上升。（5）人口密度是影响伊河流域生态系统服务供需关系的主要人为因素，降雨量是影响伊河流域生态系统服务供需关系的主要自然因素。(6)产水服务面临供需风险较大，50%子流域处于高风险等级，风险区域集中在中下游，其余3种服务以低风险等级为主，基于生态系统服务风险对伊河流域划分8类供需风险空间管理区，有助于促进精细化的区域生态系统管理。(7)当地居民对调节服务、文化服务重要性认识有待提高。（8）人类福祉在伊河流域表现为与水资源最紧密，调节服务次紧密，农产品排序第三，而文化服务产品、林业产品与伊河流域的人类福祉相关关系最弱。生态系统服务供需耦合关系研究可以集成自然生态系统和社会经济系统的信息，为流域空间管理和高质量发展提供科学支撑。