基于可靠性分析的企业核心业务恢复能力研究

This project takes up some optimization problems on recovery efficiency of enterprise core business, which has been largely overlooked in enterprise crisis management. Core business plays a critical role in the development of enterprise, even its minor accident would be suffered for serious losses in investment; however, we can not avoid such unpredictable accidents caused by all kinds of facts, such as natural, technique and human factors. From such a viewpoint, the notion of recovery efficiency of enterprise core business is proposed, which focuses to prevent accidents or minimize production losses after accident occurrence. First, definition is given, i.e., what is recovery efficiency of enterprise core business, and what are the goals of recovery efficiency. Second, we consider such a recovery efficiency in every link of enterprise crisis management, such as preventive repair plan and preparation, emergency management, and disaster recovery; influencing factors are investigated, such as operating state of the core business, life cycle of the operating system, working time, and number of the executed jobs. Third, stochastic models are formulated, which are subjected to the predicted information, such as available resources, recovery capacity, repair or maintenance costs, and so on. Fourth, optimization problems are demonstrated and optimal policies with main effective factors are given by analytical methods or simulations, using the methods of reliability theory and engineering. The effects of this project would provide not only new topics on enterprise crisis management to researchers in theory, but also some important maintenance polices with effective parameters to enterprise managers and engineers.

针对目前危机管理中恢复能力研究缺位的现状，运用系统可靠性工程学原理和方法，以遭受一定的危机打击下的企业核心业务恢复能力的提高为研究目标，从危机管理中恢复失败的企业案例分析入手，探索企业核心业务的识别方法、恢复能力的影响因素、恢复能力的价值功能分析方法与模型，把提高企业核心业务恢复能力作为灾难预防、事前准备、应急和恢复等各个危机管理环节的共同目标，即预先诊断企业核心业务及其功能状态，确定系统应该正常工作的时长，同时考虑被执行任务的周期和数量，根据预测信息、可用资源、失效后的损失和恢复成本等对系统运行及后勤保障活动做出最优决策，讨论提高恢复能力的手段和策略；在此基础上以银行企业为例考察为了得到一个科学合理的应急方案与灾难恢复方案需要考虑哪些主要因素以及它们与恢复能力之间具体的数量关系，为危机管理的进一步定量研究提供一个基础。

客观不确定性和人类有限理性，特别是科技的发展、市场竞争、多变的消费需求使企业常处于危机环境，即使是小事故也可能造成严重的损失甚至破产，而在企业危机管理中恢复能力研究常被忽视。核心业务的可持续性是企业存续的基本要求，从这一角度出发，提出了企业核心业务恢复能力或弹性的概念，以防止危机发生后企业破产并能快速恢复。运用系统可靠性工程学原理和方法，以提高企业核心业务恢复能力为目标，进行了恢复能力的性质、特征、价值与影响机理的基础性研究，探讨了提高企业恢复能力的手段、策略，对恢复方案进行了优化研究，并尝试将其应用于生产实际。研究发现：首先，弹性包括容灾能力和恢复能力。弹性会损害企业效率，企业需要考虑合理的弹性，即要考虑弹性的经济性。其次，应该把提高企业核心业务弹性作为灾难预防、事前准备、应急和恢复等各个危机管理环节的共同目标。弹性是针对风险与业务的。可能遭受的危机的类型、发生的概率和危机对企业业务所可能造成的影响不同，弹性成本应该有所差别；同时要考虑弹性成本在不同业务之间的分配。企业对该业务的依赖性、业务功能丧失后的潜在影响、可接受的故障时间、恢复该业务功能的难易程度等影响其分配方式。此外，通过重要资源的确保、资源的替代与复制、资源与功能的分散化以及外部资源的利用等可以提高弹性，企业经营模式、业务流程的设计、自律细胞型组织机构等方面在提高弹性、优化恢复方案中有重要作用。该项目的研究成果不仅拓展了可靠性理论与危机管理的新的研究课题，而且为企业管理者和实务工作者提供了有效的模型、策略与参数。