耦合电网潮流转移安全分析的梯级水电站群短期优化调度问题研究

The hydropower resource in southwest China is very rich, and there forms a hydropower base which is mainly composed of a group of large-scale cascade hydropower plants in the main stream. The abundant hydropower is now transported in a large scale through long-distance UHV transmission lines for inter-provincial and cross-regional consumption, thus forming a unique scheduling problem for cascade hydropower plants featured by heterogeneous power grid connection, highly coupled hydraulic and power relation, and so on. It is necessary to solve this new problem by coupling the traditional optimal scheduling method with power grid security and stability analysis. Therefore, on the background of the cascade hydropower plants in Sichuan and Yunnan power grid, and to evaluate the power grid safety from the perspective of power flow transfer analysis，several key issues will be addressed: 1) how to identify and describe multiple uncertain factors involved in power flow transfer analysis and further build the analysis model for large-scale power systems? 2) how to couple the short-term optimal scheduling model of cascade hydropower plants with power flow transfer analysis? and 3) how to efficiently solve the model with highly coupled hydraulic and power relations. The studied model and method will be verified by applying it to cascade hydropower plants on Yalong river, Dadu river, Lancang river and Jinsha river. The goal is to provide a feasible theoretical method for the operation of cascade hydropower plants in the southwest hydropower base, which has significant practical value in the guarantee of safety operation and the improvement of generation plan precision for cascade hydropower plants.

以水电基地特大型干流梯级水电站群为主的西南水电需要通过特高压远距离、大规模跨省跨区域输送，从而形成了独特的异构并网、部分通道压极限运行的水力、电力高度耦合的梯级水电站群调度新问题，需要将传统的优化调度与电网安全稳定分析耦合建模来解决。本项目以四川和云南电网为工程背景，从潮流转移角度分析电网运行安全，重点研究如何识别和描述多重不确定因素并构建大规模电网潮流转移安全分析模型、如何构建耦合电网潮流转移安全分析的梯级水电站群短期优化调度模型、如何高效优化求解水力-电力高度耦合的梯级水电站群短期优化调度问题。拟提出的模型和方法将通过雅砻江、大渡河、澜沧江、金沙江等多个干流梯级水电站群进行验证，为我国西南水电基地干流梯级水电站群调度运行提供切实可行的理论方法，对保障梯级水电站群发电安全、提高发电计划的精细化水平有重要的理论和实用价值。

以水电基地特大型干流梯级水电站群为主的西南水电需要通过特高压远距离、大规模跨省跨区域输送，从而形成了独特的异构并网、水力与电力高度耦合的梯级水电站群调度新问题，需要将传统的优化调度与电网安全分析耦合建模来解决。本项目以四川电网、云南电网以及域内大渡河、澜沧江等流域梯级水电站群为工程背景，重点围绕电网安全约束下的梯级水电站群短期优化调度模型与求解问题，采用模拟仿真、实例验证、对比分析等方法，提出了基于多项式混沌理论的概率配点算法的运行安全分析方法，有效解决了随机性影响下大规模场景抽样带来的求解效率问题；构建了梯级水光互补系统可消纳电量期望最大短期优化调度模型，并在Java编程环境中转化为MILP模型以实现快速求解，在电网安全约束下，挖掘水电“量与调”的双重角色，提升了互补系统的整体电量消纳水平；同时，基于研究成果研发了相应的运行安全分析软件支持系统，已成功应用于全球首个梯级水光蓄互补工程。本项目研究成果可为我国西南水电基地干流梯级水电站群调度运行提供切实可行的理论方法，对保障梯级水电站群发电安全、提高发电计划的精细化水平有重要的理论和实用价值。