关联的基础设施系统容灾性评估方法与协同决策研究

With the implementation of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative, the increasing investment in the civil infrastructure system has resulted in greater interdependencies between various sub-systems. The interdependent infrastructure system is faced with interrelated risks and prone to the cascading effect. Recent disastrous events, e.g., the 8.12 Tianjin explosions, indicate the lack of resilience in the infrastructure system in our nation. Therefore, it is of practical implications to study the effects of emergency events on interdependent infrastructure systems in terms of their coping capabilities with disasters and recovering abilities after the disaster. Most existing studies focus on the single infrastructure while neglecting the interdependency. In fact, due to the interdependency, one disruption occurred in one system can quickly spread into other interrelated systems, i.e., the so-called cascading effect. It is more practical and useful to incorporate the interdependency in evaluating the resilience and improving it. Therefore, the proposed study seeks to formulate a multi-stage stochastic program to model dynamic and incomplete information and multi-level defender-attacker to coordinate the behaviors of various self-interest parties after modeling the infrastructure interdependency. Such a study would complement the existing studies in one meaningful way and advance the state-of-the-art of resilience modeling.

随着“一带一路”战略逐步落实，对基础设施的投资规模越来越大，基础设施系统间的关联性日益增强。关联系统所面临的风险交织交错，呈现级联失效的特点。近年来以8.12天津港大爆炸为代表的灾害凸显我国基础设施系统容灾能力的不足。因此深入研究关联的基础设施系统在突发事件扰动下抵御灾害及其灾后恢复能力，提出容灾性水平评价和协调决策策略，具有现实意义。既有的相关研究大多只关注单一的基础设施，并没有考虑不同基础设施系统间相互关系。而忽略了基础设施间的关联性会加速恶化一个系统的失效在其他关联的基础设施系统内的扩散蔓延。因此，本课题将在考虑基础设施关联性的情况下建立考虑动态、不对称信息下的协调多层次的不同代理间的行为交互的容灾性评价及优化模型。该研究将丰富完善既有的城市关联基础设施容灾性研究，为削弱基础设施系统的级联失效、增强系统容灾性提供决策支持。

随着“一带一路”战略逐步落实，对基础设施的投资规模越来越大，基础设施系统间的关联性日益增强。关联系统所面临的风险交织交错，呈现级联失效的特点。近年来以8.12天津港大爆炸为代表的灾害凸显我国基础设施系统容灾能力的不足。因此深入研究关联的基础设施系统在突发事件扰动下抵御灾害及其灾后恢复能力，提出容灾性水平评价和协调决策策略，具有现实意义。既有的相关研究大多只关注单一的基础设施，并没有考虑不同基础设施系统间相互关系。而忽略了基础设施间的关联性会加速恶化一个系统的失效在其他关联的基础设施系统内的扩散蔓延。因此，本课题在考虑基础设施关联性的情况下建立考虑动态、不对称信息下的协调多层次的不同代理间的行为交互的容灾性评价及优化模型。该研究丰富完善既有的城市关联基础设施容灾性研究，为削弱基础设施系统的级联失效、增强系统容灾性提供决策支持。