基于Rough集的坚硬顶板条件下煤与瓦斯突出预警机制研究

Early-warning system is very important for gas disaster prevention. Early-warning mechanism is critical to the efficient operation of early-warning system. Therefore, it is very significant to research on early-warning mechanism of coal and gas outburst under the condition of hard roof. Interdisciplinary theories such as early-warning theory, Rough set theory, and so on, were used to research in this project. At the same time, theoretical analysis, laboratory experiment, field observation and numerical simulation were applied to research. Research contents include main influencing factors of coal and gas outburst, correlation among these factors, early-warning indices system, early-warning model and early-warning management system under the condition of hard roof. After this project is studied, regularities of bearing stress and gas parameters are drawn out under the condition of hard roof. Characteristics of outburst and the relationship between gas emission quantity and all parameters are ascertained. The main influencing factors and correlation of coal and gas outburst are determined. On the basis of the results above, early-warning indices system is set up base on Fault Tree Analysis, attributes reduction by Rough set and factor analysis. On the other hand, early-warning model based on Rough set and group decision–making is constructed. The classifications, grading standards, early-warning degree and alarm limitation of coal and gas outburst early-warning system are put forward. Early-warning management system of coal and gas outburst is set up. All these research results will help to efficiently implement early-warning system of coal and gas outburst for coal mines under the condition of hard roof in both theory and technology.

预警系统对瓦斯灾害防治至关重要，预警机制事关预警系统的有效运行，因此对坚硬顶板条件下煤与瓦斯突出预警机制进行研究意义重大。综合运用预警理论、Rough集等多学科交叉理论，采用理论分析、实验室实验、现场观测、数值模拟等方法对坚硬顶板条件下煤与瓦斯突出的主要影响因素及其相关关系、突出预警的指标体系、预警模型和预警管理体系进行系统、深入的研究，以期确定出坚硬顶板条件下应力和瓦斯参数的变化规律、突出的特征以及瓦斯涌出量与各参数的相关关系，明确坚硬顶板条件下煤与瓦斯突出的主要影响因素及其相关关系；在此基础上，基于事故树分析、rough集约简和因子分析，构建出坚硬顶板条件下煤与瓦斯突出预警指标体系；构建基于Rough集-群决策的煤与瓦斯突出预警模型；提出煤与瓦斯突出预警的分级及分级标准、警度和警限，构建出煤与瓦斯突出预警管理体系。以便为开采坚硬顶板煤层的矿井实施煤与瓦斯突出预警系统提供理论和技术支撑。

预警系统对瓦斯灾害防治至关重要，预警机制事关预警系统的有效运行，因此对坚硬顶板条件下煤与瓦斯突出预警机制进行研究意义重大。采用理论分析、实验室实验、现场观测、数值模拟等方法对坚硬顶板条件下煤与瓦斯突出预警机制进行了研究。对实验矿井工作面的煤岩物理力学性质进行了测定，对单轴和三轴压缩的力学特征和声发射特征、动态冲击特征进行了分析，建立了煤在线弹性阶段和塑性变形阶段的渗透率模型，构建了三自变量渗透率方程和四自变量煤与瓦斯突出方程，得出了控制煤与瓦斯突出的渗透性判定条件。煤与瓦斯突出正交实验结果表明，参与突出实验的三因素的重要度排序为：煤的强度>气体压力>地应力。从瓦斯压力对突出影响的实验可知，煤与瓦斯突出发生的临界瓦斯压力阈值为0.45MPa，在瓦斯压力大于0.45MPa时，随着瓦斯压力的增加，煤与瓦斯突出的相对突出强度和突出口的粉煤速度也不断增加。.构建了煤与瓦斯突出事故树，计算了突出发生的概率，分析了各基本事件的结构重要度、概率重要度和临界重要度，确定出了导致突出的各因素的重要性排序。依据《防治煤与瓦斯突出细则》，结合实验矿井事故树分析结果，确定出了煤与瓦斯突出的预警指标体系，共包含8个指标。.基于Rough集计算了预警指标的客观权系数，基于Delphi法计算了预警指标的主观权系数，并将两者合成为综合权系数，构建了基于群决策的煤与瓦斯突出预警模型，提出了突出预警的分级及分级标准，并将构建的预警指标体系和预警模型对实验矿井己15-17-11110工作面的突出危险性进行了预警分析，发现其突出的危险性为高风险，并根据预警分析结果提出了相应的预防措施。.提出了煤矿瓦斯灾害预警系统的组成，提出了瓦斯灾害的预测机制、报警机制、矫正机制和免疫机制，并分析了预警系统的目标体系。瓦斯灾害预警管理体系应该由预警监测系统、预警管理系统和预警信息系统三部分组成，并分析了每部分的功能及要求。