面向汽车安全设计的层次化模型验证和外推理论及其应用研究

Computer modeling and simulations are playing an increasingly important role in complex engineering system applications such as reducing vehicle prototype tests and shortening product development time. Before applying these models for product development, model validation needs to be conducted to assess the validity of the models. Model validation is to assess the validity and predictive capabilities of computer models by comparing computer output with test data. However, how to hierarchically validate and extrapolate the model of complex dynamic systems under uncertainty has become the bottleneck in the application of modeling and simulations in various industries including automotive safety. In order to provide generic model validation and extrapolation methodologies and tools for complex systems under uncertainty in automotive safety applications, this project investigates and develops methods to achieve: (1) complex model decomposition and uncertainty analysis, (2) hierarchical model validation and extrapolation, and (3) efficient and robust design optimization with updated model. The development of the proposed theories and methodologies will greatly enhance the accuracy and predictive capability of the computer models in automotive safety applications, reduce the development time and cost of safety tools. Furthermore, the developed theories and tools will strongly support the virtual prototyping of automotive safety and other potential industrial applications as well.

基于仿真模型的数字化设计已发展成为汽车安全研发中不可或缺的一部分。实现高效数字化设计的关键之一是模型验证。模型验证是分析和判断数字化模型预测结果与实际物理系统的吻合程度，并根据对比结果对数字化模型质量和预测能力做出决策的过程。本课题针对不确定性条件下汽车安全设计系统层次化模型和外推的问题，研究复杂系统的模型分解和不确定性分析方法、层次化模型验证与外推方法、以及基于修正模型的高效稳健设计优化方法，构建基于层次化模型验证和外推的汽车安全数字化设计原型系统，并将研究成果应用于新车型的汽车安全设计和开发。该研究将显著提高汽车安全设计数字化模型的精确度与预测能力，减少汽车开发时间和成本，为实现不依赖物理试验的汽车安全虚拟设计提供有力的理论基础和技术支撑。

基于高精度模型的创新设计为以汽车安全系统为代表的典型工程系统数字化开发提供了有效支持。本项目以汽车被动安全系统为研究对象，针对其模型验证及基于数字化模型的优化设计中存在的关键问题开展了以下研究：1）基于时频域特征参数化重构、非线性相关数据归约及统计决策的多元动态系统模型验证体系研究；2）基于不确定性表征方法及贝叶斯外推理论的近似模型建立及偏差修正方法研究；3）集模型评估、模型决策、及模型更新为一体的汽车安全系统数字化开发流程研究。基于课题研究成果，提出面向汽车安全设计的层次化模型验证和外推理论，为提升我国基于数字化模型的汽车安全系统创新设计架构提供理论和技术支撑。课题组已在《Engineering Optimization》、《Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology》、《SAE International Journal of Materials and Manufacturing》、《SAE International Journal of Transportation Safety》《中国机械工程》等国内外重要期刊或会议上发表论文22篇，包括SCI/EI期刊论文7篇，申请发明专利3项，其中授权1项。培养了毕业硕士4名，在培博士1名及硕士3名，已达到项目预期研究目标。