旅游信息发布对景区内游客时空分流的影响研究

It is easier to cause toursits safety accidents and decline the satisfaction degree of tourists that the toursits in the attracitions are overcrowded,and so the attractions tourists' spatial-temporal distribution navigation management become the focus areas of tourism traffic research. Set tourists individuals and groups as the research object,the induction of tourists' behavior based on information released and supplied were to excavate the attractions tourists' spatial-temporal distribution navigation management and regulation mechanism. Intrinsic motivation and external influence of tourists' microcosmic behavior were analyzed to discover the mechanism of the choice of the number and the tour order of the attractions and changes in the travel experience of individual tourists under congested and non-congested state. The spatial and temporal distribution indexes of tourists such as density, speed are analyzed. Combined with the subjective perception analysis such as tourist interpersonal distance and satisfaction, the relationship of the density of tourist and subjective perception were analyzed. The induction mechanism of individual and group behavior are studied with the tour information dissemination were provided to discuss the relationship between the tourist distribution and tour route choice behavior. Tourist spatial-temporal distribution optimal model was established to explore the spatial and temporal scales. The warning mechanism of tourist congestion were established and risk control measures and effects were discussed. The results can make the tourists reasonable spatial-temporal distribution and improve the tour quality and meet the needs of tourists which provide the theoretical foundation and technical support.

景区（点）游客的过度拥挤容易诱发游客安全事故和游客的满意度下降，因此游客景区（点）时空分流调控理论是旅游交通管理研究领域的热点。以游客个体和群体为研究对象，基于信息发布下的游客行为诱导发掘游客时空分流及调控机理。分析游客微观行为选择的内在动机和外界影响，揭示不同客流密度下的游客旅游感受、拥堵和非拥堵状态下游客微观行为选择动机机理，分析游客客流密度、速度等游客时空分布规律，结合游客人际距离、满意度等主观感知分析，研究景点周围客流密度与游客主观感受之间的作用关系；分析基于信息发布下的游客微观行为选择的内在动机和外界影响，研究客流分布与游客游览线路选择的关系；建立信息条件下的游客时空分流优化模型，探讨时空分流调控措施的空间尺度；从而建立游客客流拥堵预警机制并开展危险防范措施研究。成果可为游客时空合理分布，旅游质量提高，游客需求满足提供理论基础和技术支持。

智能景区建设和游客集散组织管理需要掌握和理解游客时空分流调控理论，发掘信息条件下游客时空分流的机理，并提出相应的预防和景区信息化建设措施。项目从游客游览行为选择的内在动机、信息需求、行为选择、预防措施等角度开展研究。针对游客微观行为选择的内在动机，揭示不同客流密度下的游客旅游感受和微观行为选择动机机理，研究二者之间的作用关系；针对信息需求，研究游客的信息搜索机制及需求，分析规律及其影响因素；针对行为选择，分析旅游线路选择的多样程度及影响因素，以及拥挤状态下景区游线优化设计、游客重游意愿、信息条件下的景区客流分流优化模型，研究信息供给、游客线路选择、时空分布三者关系。针对预防措施，研究景区旅游者流量控制联动系统、分流和截流方案与旅游交通三级指引系统布设措施等。.主要研究结果为：（1）提出将旅游决策分为出行前、出行中和景区游览三个阶段，明确了不同的出行阶段旅游决策的选择域及其信息需求。（2）基于海德平衡理论，探讨了游客旅游出行行为及态度改变的机理。构建景区拥堵状态下，游客游览线路的“P-O- X”三角平衡模型，结果表明游客为获得良好的旅游体验，在态度关系链上会选择比较容易改变的关系加以转换。（3）建立游客主观拥挤感知模型，研究景区客观拥堵状态与游客拥堵感知之间的关系，建立景区拥挤感知分级体系。（4）建立非拥堵和拥堵状态下的多目标旅游线路优化游线模型，确定优化目标与约束条件。（5）探索游客重游机理及其影响因素，构建了基于贝叶斯网络的游客重游模型。（6）建立信息条件下的景区景点客流分流优化模型，提出了分流调度算法。（7）构建景区旅游者流量控制联动系统，以河北省平山县为例，构建区域入口、区域内部、景区附近的旅游交通三级指引系统。成果可为游客时空合理分布，旅游质量提高，游客需求满足提供理论基础和技术支持。