我国蔗糖供应链物流网络优化设计及应用研究

Facing pressures from the business loss, requirements of low carbon economy, and competition from sugar producing countries such as Brazil, technology innovation and application become the key for the stable development of sugarcane industry in our country. According to the characteristics of the sucrose supply chain, it’s an urgent need to establish suitable sucrose supply chain logistics network according to the actual situation of China's sugar supply chain including technology selection/upgrade decision. This project firstly analyzes the sucrose supply chain logistics and its network characteristics. Considering the factors such as sugar prices, technology selection/upgrading, low carbon economy and the biological characteristics that harvest sugarcane’s sucrose present rapid depletion, the China's sugar supply chain logistics network optimization design models are proposed. And the uncertainty factors such as sugar cane production, sucrose and sugar prices will be described using random variable, then China's sugar supply chain logistics network stochastic programming models are addressed. Then how the parameters such as technology choice and upgrading, cost of carbon credit in per CO2 influence the the sugar supply chain logistics network optimization design by sensitivity analysis are studied to solve the sucrose in the supply chain location and scale, technology selection and joint decision problem of product portfolio, and flow distribution etc. The research has strong theoretical and practical significance on reducing the sugar supply chain cost, increasing farmers' income, and ensuring the safety of China's sugar.

面对企业亏损、低碳经济的要求以及巴西等产糖大国的竞争压力，技术创新与应用成为我国蔗糖业稳定发展的关键。结合蔗糖供应链的特点，融合技术选择/改造升级决策建立合适的蔗糖供应链物流网络成为我国蔗糖业迫切需要解决的问题。本项目将分析我国蔗糖供应链物流及其网络特征；综合考虑食糖价格、技术选择/改造升级、低碳经济等因素以及甘蔗收割后蔗糖分呈现快速消耗这一生物学特性建立我国蔗糖供应链物流网络优化设计模型；用随机变量描述甘蔗产量、蔗糖分与食糖价格的不确定性，建立蔗糖供应链物流网络优化设计的随机规划模型；采用灵敏度分析法探讨模型中技术选择与单位二氧化碳的碳信用成本等参数的变化对蔗糖供应链物流网络优化设计的影响规律，用以解决我国蔗糖供应链中的选址与规模、技术选择与产品组合、流量分配等的联合决策问题。本项目的研究对降低我国蔗糖供应链成本、促进农民增收与保障我国食糖安全等方面均具有很强的理论和现实意义。

面对企业亏损、低碳经济的要求以及巴西等产糖大国的竞争压力，技术创新与应用成为我国蔗糖业稳定发展的关键。结合蔗糖供应链的特点，融合技术选择/改造升级决策建立合适的蔗糖供应链物流网络成为我国蔗糖业迫切需要解决的问题。本项目在实地调研的基础上，对比分析了巴西、泰国、印度与澳大利亚等几个世界上最大的产糖国与我国蔗糖供应链物流的异同，定义了蔗糖供应链，构建出我国蔗糖供应链物流的体系结构，分析我国蔗糖供应链物流系统及其功能，分析蔗糖供应链物流网络的特点、结构及其特征。综合考虑食糖价格、技术选择/改造升级、低碳经济等因素建立我国蔗糖供应链物流网络优化设计模型；用随机变量描述甘蔗产量、这糖分与食糖价格的不确定性，建立蔗糖供应链物流网络优化设计的随机规划模型；针对建立的数学模型设计数据生成器准则，在Java中调用Cplex对模型进行求解。采用灵敏度分析法探讨模型中技术选择与单位二氧化碳的碳信用成本等参数的变化对蔗糖供应链物流网络优化设计的影响规律，用以解决我国蔗糖供应链中的选址与规模、技术选择与产品组合、流量分配等的联合决策问题。研究结果表明：合理的候选设施产能、较多的候选设施数量、高糖的原料蔗、蔗渣在糖厂就地处理有利于降低供应链总成本；关闭已存糖厂/物流中心获得的收益越高，越有利于蔗糖产业的转型升级；蔗糖分含量越高、更高水平的生产技术也越有利于降低蔗糖物流总成本；较高的单位碳交易价格将迫使企业增加运营成本以降低实际碳排放量，那些注重碳减排的优秀企业将从碳交易中获得收益；碳排放配额不会对蔗糖供应链运营产生影响，也不会改变蔗糖供应链的实际碳排放量，但较低的碳排放配额会增加企业的碳交易成本，从而增加供应链的总成本。本项目的研究对降低我国蔗糖供应链成本、促进农民增收与保障我国食糖安全等方面均具有很强的理论和现实意义。既能获得理论性成果，又能实际指导蔗糖企业优化物流网络的管理实践。