企业创新对资本市场信息环境的影响——基于区域人才政策作为工具变量的实证分析

In 2016, the CPC Central Committee and the State Council issued the top-level design document for the Innovation-Driven Development Strategy—“National Innovation-Driven Development Strategy Outline”. In response to the talent incentive strategy emphasized in the Outline, various regions in China have introduced different kinds of talent introduction policies. Exploiting these talent introduction policies as instrument variable and utilizing two-stage least squares estimation technique, this project attempts to comprehensively analyze how the corporate innovation shapes capital market information. Innovation has long been an important research question. However, prior studies have mostly analyzed the determinants of innovation, while literatures on innovation effects are relatively limited, nearly all of which focus on its real effects. In addition, due to the two-way decisiveness of the innovation model and omitted-variable problem, the research in this strand always encounters a serious endogeneity dilemma. Utilizing the regional talent policies as natural experiment, this project analyzes the information effect of corporate innovation based on the instrumental variable model, which not only fills the gap in relevant literatures from the information perspective, but also provides new technology for future studies in mitigating the endogeneity problem. The project addresses three parts: 1) Combining the information demand and information supply theory, analyze the impact of corporate innovation on the mandatory and voluntary information disclosure strategies of listed companies; 2) By investigating analysts' cost-benefit function, analyze the impact of corporate innovation on analyst information supply behavior and forecast characteristics; 3) On the basis of the signal hypothesis and insurance theory, analyze the impact of corporate innovation on auditor choice and auditor behavior. Furthermore, based on the unique China's institutional background, the project aims to investigate the moderating role of the property rights and judicial efficiency, analyst on-site visiting and IPO suspension events played in relations between innovation and information environment. In theory, this project expands the innovation theory from the information perspective and provides a new research solution for future research. In practice, this project has important implications for China's the Innovation-Driven Development Strategy and talent introduction policy.

为响应国家创新驱动发展战略的要求，中国各地区相继出台了各种人才引进政策。本项目借助区域人才政策作为工具变量，运用两阶段最小二乘法，试图全面分析企业创新对资本市场信息环境的影响。核心内容包括：1）结合信息需求和信息供给理论，分析企业创新对上市公司强制和自愿性信息披露策略和信息特征的影响；2）通过研究分析师的成本收益函数，分析企业创新对分析师信息供给行为和预测特征的影响；3）基于信号假说和保险理论，分析企业创新对审计师选择和审计决策的影响。此外，基于中国独特的制度背景，本项目拟进一步分析产权司法制度、分析师实地调研以及IPO暂停事件等对创新信息效应的调节作用。在理论上，本项目从信息效应的角度扩展了以实际效应为导向的创新理论，克服了因创新模型的双向决定性和遗漏变量问题导致的内生性问题，并为未来研究提供了新的分析思路和技术手段。在实践上，本项目对中国的创新驱动发展战略和人才引进政策具有重要启示。

资本市场是一个信息驱动的市场。充分的信息及有效传递是资本市场发挥资源配置功能的重要保证。本项目在执行过程中围绕着企业外部创新环境的制度性变化给资本市场信息环境带来的影响展开了一系列的研究。我们从信息供需博弈的视角，系统分析企业创新对信息供给均衡的影响，并从企业策略应对以及基础制度建设的角度提出了缓解信息困境的潜在路径。随着研究的深入，分析逐步拓展至资本市场信息环境的影响因素和经济后果。最后，我们通过大数据分析，发现信息在引导资本市场资源配置过程中存在着显著的处理阻碍，并验证了降低信息处理成本是提升资本市场信息效率的重要手段。. 基于上述研究，项目负责人共有7篇标注本项目的科研成果在国内外权威学术期刊发表，并有1部标注本项目的学术专著出版。其中：在国际顶尖（前三）会计学期刊《Journal of Accounting and Economics》发表文章2篇；在国际顶尖（前五）会计学期刊《Contemporary Accounting Research》发表文章1篇；在国际知名会计与财务期刊《Accounting and Finance》发表文章1篇；在国内顶尖会计学期刊《会计研究》发表文章1篇；以及在其他国内外期刊发表论文2篇。此外，在经济科学出版社出版个人学术专著1部。