中原经济区农户劳动力配置的多任务委托代理模型研究

The government undertakes the task to explore a new way of new urbanization, industrialization and agricultural modernization, develop coordinately in Zhongyuan Economic Region. For solving the most severe obstacle to coordinated development，it is beneficial to guide rural labors to be allocated between rural and urban area，among three industries. But，we must ask the question if rural labors allocation based on individual rationality would be in harmony with the government leading special development goal..The project observes and studies the changes of rural labor management system and the evolution of rural labor allocation behavior since people's Commune, by means of multi-task principal-agent model; Constructs the multi-task principal-agent model of rural labor allocation in Zhongyuan Economic Region, through setting policy spaces between government and peasant households and the government incentive contract for peasant households; With the kinds of incentive contract and the relationship characters of marginal cost between multitasks, the basic propositions will be inferred, then 'the new type of rural community construction' and 'the reform of the household registration system' will be analyzed in the model; The empirical analysis of 'the new type of rural community construction' and 'the reform of the household registration system' will be implemented by multivariant logit model and two period of pooled cross section data (or panal data) model method, using the statistical data and sampled data; At last, we will put forward some pieces of advice on how to promote rural labors to be allocated rationally, in order to achieve the acceptable development.

中原经济区旨在探索一条新型城镇化、工业化和农业现代化协调发展的新路。引导农村劳动力在城乡及产业间合理配置，对解决制约“三化”协调发展的现实问题和突出矛盾尤为必要。问题是，基于农户理性决策的农村劳动力资源配置能否与政府主导的“三化”协调发展目标相契合？.本项目借鉴多任务委托代理框架，考察人民公社时期以来农村劳动管理制度变迁和农户劳动力配置的行为演变；设定政府和农户的策略空间，确定制度与政策进入农户激励合同的方案，构建中原经济区农户劳动力配置的多任务委托代理模型；结合制度、政策进入激励合同的类型与任务间边际成本关系特点推导基本命题，并对“新型农村社区建设”和“户籍制度改革”进行模型分析；运用调研和统计数据，采用多元Logit模型和两时期混合横截面或综列数据方法对基本命题和“新型农村社区建设”的政策效果进行经验分析；最后，提出顺应中原经济区“三化”协调发展、促进农村劳动力资源合理配置的对策建议。

农户劳动力跨空间、产业多元化配置，与新型城镇化、工业化和农业现代化协调发展紧密相关。以多任务委托代理理论为分析框架，讨论集体化时期农村劳动管理制度、考察农户劳动力配置的策略性行为演变、分析政府引导农户劳动力资源配置的策略空间、正视政府致力于协调农户劳动力配置多任务关系改革尝试的艰难、辩证看待通过差别化城镇户籍制度引导农村劳动力资源合理配置的改革方案。.考虑技术前提和制度假设，从多任务委托代理角度看，集体化时期以“弱激励”、“限制农民私人活动”等方式对农村劳动力进行管控具有制度“自洽性”，农民在劳动供给中在量与质的方面策略性权衡是合乎理性的。中原经济区农户是劳动力多元化配置的市场风险承担者，政府通过农村产权制度改革、涉农财税政策、差异化市民化政策设计等手段间接影响农户劳动力配置的收益或效用。统计分析和计量结果都揭示政府可以通过农户关注的农村产权权益和城镇公共服务供给来引导农户在城乡间配置，而农户劳动力多元化配置的“多任务”间的“替代性”也十分明显。中原经济区曾经历了以新型农村社区为载体，为农户劳动力多元化配置导致的多任务间的“替代性”向“互补性”转化提供条件的短暂艰难尝试；农户对户籍制度改革的不知情特点，虽没有妨碍常住人口城镇化的提高，但却对户籍人口城镇化的推进具有负面影响。.河南在引导农村劳动力资源配置方面，致力于最大限度地促进农村人口向城镇转移和常住人口市民化。项目研究结论显示，差别化的户籍制度改革设计是推进农业转移人口有序实现市民化的有效手段；以差别化落户政策与享受市民待遇相挂钩、以居住证制度与享受基本公共服务相挂钩，这种农业转移人口市民化的“二维路径”有可能形成农业转移人口市民化的二元分割；在农业转移人口市民化成本分担机制特别是财政转移支付制度没有取得实质性进展条件下，通过农业转移人口等常住人口落户，实现户籍人口城镇化率与常住人口城镇化率缩小的这一城镇化发展目标很难达到。