新疆阿尔泰山典型山区流域融雪径流模拟与预测研究

The variability of snow in alpine greatly affects the water balance and human life. The primary precipitation in Altay Mountains is in the form of snow. Rapid spring snowmelt could cause flood disasters that can endanger public and personal property and safety. To study the hydrological effect of snow in this region is the essential condition to quantitatively descript and study hydrological processes of cold region, to estimate regional water resources change and prevent snow flood disasters. However, snowmelt runoff simulation and forecast in alpine region is a hot topic on which scientists generally focus, and it is also a challenge for the earth system science and hydrological simulation. With the breakthrough of the monitoring technology and research methology, the study of snow in alpine can be further explored. This project is based on Kuwei meteorology and hydrology observation stations. Breakthrough of observation technology (VZ 3D-laser scanner) and multiple scales methods can be used for field observations in typical snow zone (Kayiertesi river basin). Through this experiment, we can obtain the data of snow cover, snow depth and snow water equivalent in multiple spatial scale. By analyzing the impact factor of snowmelt in basins of alpine, we can study the hydrological effect of snow in this region. Then, based on the data of remote sensing and WRF model, combining with GBHM model, we will construct distributed snowmelt model in this region. Finally, we will simulate the snowmelt runoff in different periods, and analyze the variability of snowmelt water recourse and its responds to climate change and forecast snowmelt water recourse trend in the future.

山区积雪的多少很大程度上影响地表水量平衡和人类生产生活。阿尔泰山地区气候寒冷，大多数降水是以雪的形式出现，春季极容易出现融雪洪水灾害。研究该区域流域尺度积雪的水文效应，是定量描述和研究该区域寒区水文过程、评估区域水资源变化和预防雪洪灾害的重要基础。然而，山区流域融雪径流模拟与预测是学者比较关注的难点之一。近年来关键技术和方法的不断突破，为山区流域融雪径流模拟提供了可能性。本项目依托库威气象水文综合观测站，在喀依尔特斯河流域，利用多尺度、先进观测技术(三维激光扫描仪等)获取流域重要积雪参数(积雪面积、雪深、雪水当量)，揭示流域尺度积雪消融的主要影响因素及其水文效应，基于遥感和WRF中尺度天气模式，结合GBHM分布式水文模型，构建适合山区的分布式融雪水文模型并在不同时期进行融雪径流模拟研究，进而探讨阿尔泰山山区融雪水资源变化及其对气候变化的响应，并预测未来气候情景下融雪水资源变化趋势。

融雪径流是我国西北干旱区水资源的重要组成部分。气候变暖在不断影响着干旱区水循环要素的变化，加剧了水资源的不确定性；同时，人口增长和社会经济的快速发展也增加了人们对水资源的需求。因此，气候变化对融雪径流的影响十分重要，一定程度上与社会经济发展的息息相关。近几十年来，新疆阿尔泰山地区气候变暖迅速，导致区域年内水循环加剧。鉴于此，本项目基于GBEHM模型，结合野外考察和遥感资料，开展了阿尔泰山喀依尔特斯河流域融雪径流模拟研究。研究成果具体可归纳为以下几个方面：1) 分析了研究区过去历史时期积雪和气候要素变化特征，并与北半球的变化速率做了详细的对比研究；2）厘清了研究区地形、土壤特性、植被特性等影响积雪消融的关键因子，明确了研究区与积雪消融密不可分的主控因素；3）构建研究区分布式融雪径流模型框架，并顺利完成前期校准和参数率定；4）完成高时空分辨率动态模拟融雪径流过程，并定量模拟了融雪水量平衡各个组分的贡献量，分析其多年变化与气候响应关系。上述研究成果可为该区域水资源年内分配和可持续利用提供理论指导，为其他干旱区融雪径流过程机制研究提供借鉴和参考。在本项目资助下已正式发表和接收论文5篇，其中SCI论文4篇，中文核心1篇；参加学术会议5次。