支撑省级能源规划评估的能源需求预测模型体系研究

Under the dual pressures of economic restructuring and environmental protection,it is an inevitable choice to further control the total energy demand in 13th Five-Year Plan period. How to make optimum allocation of total energy demand at the provincial level is core for the central government to guide and evaluate provincial energy planning and a scientific question which is urgent to be addressed. This study firstly establishes the national and provincial databasebased on consistency checks of national and provincial economic and energy data.Secondly, in order to meet the goal of five-year plan forecast, we develop national-provincial dynamic computable general equilibrium model, as well as.provincial energy demand modules with coal, oil, gas and electricity on the basis of the database, and we build the hybrid model by connecting the two models to construct the national -provincial energy demand forecast model system. Finally,according to each province economic activity, we use the national -provincial energy demand forecast model system to predict the corresponding energy demand inthe baseline scenario, and in accordance with provincial environmental constraints, policy setting, we simulate a variety of policy scenarios,which provides reference and decision support for the assessment of provincial energy demand planning.

在经济转型和环境保护双重压力下，“十三五”时期进一步控制能源需求总量是必然选择。如何实现能源需求总量在各省间的优化配置成为中央政府指导和评估各省能源规划的核心所在，也是迫切需要解决的科学问题。本研究在对全国及分省经济与能源数据的一致性检验基础上，建立全国及分省经济发展、能源供需基础数据库；然后以满足5年规划预测为目标，研制国家-分省动态可计算一般均衡模型，以及各个分省煤、油、气、电能源需求模块，并基于混合模型的建模思路将两者进行连接和迭代运算，建成国家-分省能源需求预测模型；最后利用该模型根据各省经济活动预测相应能源需求基准情景，并根据各省环境约束、政策设置，开发多种政策情景，为国家能源局实施各省能源需求规划指标评估提供参考依据和决策支撑。

在经济转型和环境保护双重压力下，“十三五”时期进一步控制能源需求总量是必然选择。如何实现能源需求总量在各省间的优化配置成为中央政府指导和评估各省能源规划的核心所在，也是迫切需要解决的科学问题。本研究在对全国及分省经济与能源数据的一致性检验基础上，建立全国及分省经济发展、能源供需基础数据库；然后以满足5年规划预测为目标，研制国家-分省动态可计算一般均衡模型，以及各个分省煤、油、气、电能源需求模块，并基于混合模型的建模思路将两者进行连接和迭代运算，建成国家-分省能源需求预测模型；最后利用该模型根据各省经济活动预测相应能源需求基准情景，并根据各省环境约束、政策设置，开发多种政策情景，为国家能源局实施各省能源需求规划指标评估提供参考依据和决策支撑。