气候变暖背景下三江平原耕地利用变化及其对粮食产能的影响

Under the background of climate warming, how to mine climatic productivity potential and optimized configuration of cultivated land is a focus of Agriculture and Rural Geography, but also an important study part of Land Resources Science. Sanjiang Plain is an agricultural region with the worst heat condition and a national commodity grain base with the most significant climate warming in China. It took place the most significant cultivated land use change and the grain production increase in recent years. So it is the ideal region to carry out the research of cultivated land use change effects on food production capacity. We will follow the research ideas of "Process – mechanism – effect –optimization" in this project. Firstly, we will divide the cultivated land to dry land, irrigated land, well-irrigated paddy and canal-irrigated paddy, extract cultivated land use data from multi-source land use and remote sensing data in Sanjiang Plain since 2000. Then we will analyze the spatial-temporal pattern of cultivated land use change that response to climate warming. We will comparatively analyze the driving mechanism of cultivated land use change between Reclamation region and Agricultural region under different land administrate systems with Regional Systems Theory and System Dynamics, dynamically simulate productive potential of different cultivated lands and the regional food production capacity basing on agro-ecological-economic zoning model(AEEZ) and analyze the effects of cultivated land use change on food production capacity. Lastly, we will propose cultivated land resources optimal configuration strategies to deal with global warming and improve food production capacity.The project will deepen the cognition of cultivated land resource optimizated configuration and agricultural adaptability under the background of the climate changing, promote the first national modern agriculture comprehensive reform pilot region construction. So it has important theoretical and practical significances.

气候变暖背景下如何挖掘气候生产潜力、优化耕地配置是农业与乡村地理学研究的热点，也是土地资源学研究的重要内容。三江平原是我国热量条件最差、气候变暖最显著的农业区域，也是近年来耕地利用变化、粮食增产最显著的商品粮基地。本项目遵循“过程—机制—影响—调控”的研究思路，划分耕地类型为旱地、水浇地、井灌水田、渠灌水田，基于多源土地利用及遥感数据提取2000年来三江平原耕地利用数据，分析耕地利用变化对气候变暖响应的时空格局；基于区域系统理论及系统动力学，对比分析垦区与农区在不同土地制度下耕地利用变化的驱动机制；基于农业生态经济分区方法动态模拟不同类型耕地的生产潜力及区域粮食产能，分析耕地利用变化对粮食产能的影响；最后提出应对气候变暖、提升粮食产能的耕地资源优化配置对策。本项目将深化对气候变化背景下耕地资源优化配置及农业适应性的认知，推动国家首个现代农业综合配套改革试验区建设，具有重要的理论和实践意义。

气候变暖背景下如何挖掘气候生产潜力、优化耕地配置是农业与乡村地理学研究的热点，也是土地资源学研究的重要内容。三江平原是我国热量条件最差、气候变暖最显著的农业区域，也是近年来耕地利用变化、粮食增产最显著的商品粮基地。本项目遵循“过程—机制—影响—调控”的研究思路，划分耕地类型为旱地、水浇地、井灌水田、渠灌水田，基于多源土地利用及遥感数据提取2000年来三江平原耕地利用数据，分析耕地利用变化对气候变暖响应的时空格局；基于区域系统理论及系统动力学，对比分析垦区与农区在不同土地制度下耕地利用变化的驱动机制；基于农业生态经济分区方法动态模拟不同类型耕地的生产潜力及区域粮食产能，分析耕地利用变化对粮食产能的影响；最后提出应对气候变暖、提升粮食产能的耕地资源优化配置对策。本项目将深化对气候变化背景下耕地资源优化配置及农业适应性的认知，推动国家首个现代农业综合配套改革试验区建设，具有重要的理论和实践意义。