基于计算实验的中国跨国公司决策治理和成长路径的演化研究

The evolutionary research on the decision-making governance and the growth path of China multinational corporations based on the computational experiment theory will be performed and the evolutionary theory system of China multinational corporations growth will be created in this project. First of all, the related literature at home and abroad will be collected and reviewed and the data and material will be investigated and sorted and classified. The traditional organization theory and the multinational corporations theory will be analyzed and selected to aid this project research. The computational methodology of the organization theory research of China multinational corporations based on the computational experiment theory will be put forward on the basis of the methodologies of the complexity science, organizational economics, computational economics, complex adaptive system and social network analysis. Secondly, the framework system of organizational decision-making of China multinational corporations based on the computational experiment theory will be constructed by analyzing the traditional organization decision-making theory system and introducing the computational experiment methodology. Thirdly, the evolutionary models of the decision-making governance of China multinational corporations based on the computational experiment theory will be developed and designed from the viewpoint of the market structure such as monopoly, oligopoly, monopolistic competition, and perfect competition on the basis of the reference of artificial society model and the industry positioning of China multinational corporations in the market structure of the world. Fourthly, the cultural diversity decision-making team of China multinational corporations will be discussed and constructed. Fifthly, the evolutionary model of growth path of China multinational corporations based on the computational experiment theory will be developed and designed by considering FDI and multinational merger of the multinational corporations and using the social network analysis theory to analyze the relationship between elements within the multinational corporations and the relationship between the multinational corporations. Sixthly, the organizational adaptation model based on simulated annealing algorithm will be developed and designed by considering the industry positioning of China multinational corporations in the market structure as an external environment and analyzing the learning methods and game rules of each level within the multinational corporations with two level structure of organization. Finally, the evolutionary theory system of the growth of China multinational corporations will be created by combining the international economics theory and the case study and the above study based on the computational experiment theory.

本项目以计算实验理论为指导，调研国内外相关文献和资料，从传统组织理论和跨国公司理论出发，借鉴复杂性科学、组织经济学、计算经济学、复杂适应系统和社会网络分析的方法论，提出基于计算实验的组织研究方法论；分析传统组织决策理论体系，引入计算实验方法论，构建基于计算实验的组织决策框架体系；参考人工社会模型，从垄断、寡头垄断、垄断竞争和完全竞争的产业定位，研制各市场结构中的跨国公司决策治理模型，探讨多元文化跨国公司决策团队的构建；考虑跨国公司FDI和跨国并购，利用社会网络分析理论来分析跨国公司内各要素间关系和跨国公司组织间关系，构建跨国公司成长路径的演化模型；将跨国公司市场结构定位作为外部环境，分析跨国公司组织内的二层结构以及各层的学习方法和博弈规则，构造基于模拟退火算法的组织适应模型；结合国际经济学理论，开展案例研究，创建基于计算实验的中国跨国公司成长的演化理论体系，提出FDI领域自己的理论观点。

主要研究了组织演化问题研究方法论的多路径整合思想、人工组织模型框架、基于多主体系统的人才集聚模型、基于多主体系统的组织起源模型、基于多主体系统的组织结构模型、基于计算实验的中国跨国公司成长的演化理论初步体系、中国外贸生态环境分析与绿色贸易转型策略、新常态下中国利用FDI促进供给侧结构性改革和产业转型升级的对策、金砖国家出口商品结构比较分析及借鉴、“一带一路”战略框架下山东跨国公司成长的对策等十个模块。.得出的重要结果：.1、基于计算实验的中国跨国公司成长的演化理论初步体系：利用基于多主体的建模方法，打开组织黑箱，考虑人才、资源、环境等因素，整合研究内容的前五部分重构而成。为组织理论研究提出一个新视角，有效地改变组织管理研究范式和实践思路的创新，丰富组织理论。.2、组织决策程序的重要改进：通过方法论的探讨，将目前组织管理理论中的“问题-理论论证-对策”模式转变为“问题-理论论证-对策-演化分析”的新范式，避免组织理论的研究成果进入“垃圾筒模型”，提高组织理论研究成果的适应性和有效性。增加“演化分析”模块，对于重大决策起到有效的保驾护航，有利于决策体制和决策机制的完善。.3、组织决策治理体系：重视系统中的每个主体要素的认知能力和决策能力，主要包括组织决策层的治理、组织中层的治理和业务层的治理。多层决策体系形成共振，才能产生巨大的合力，从而保证组织决策效率的有效提高。.4、组织管理理论的有效知识模块框架：提出有效管理的知识体系，即正确的世界观人生观和价值观、自然辩证法和系统方法论以及社会科学方法论和经济学方法论、管理学知识、行业知识或领域知识，突破传统管理理论的知识结构。聚焦包括传统文化和哲学观在内的道德体系、方法论、经济管理理论和实践相关环节的协同创新。.5、将研究成果，应用于山东浪潮进出口有限公司的人才管理、组织变革和跨国经营等活动，取得了较好的实效。