极端天气视阈下长江中游通航环境风险的演变机理研究

The research analyzes the cluster characteristics and interannual variability of extreme weather of the middle reaches of Yangtze River through algorithm cluster extraction based on kth-order Nearest-Distance. The characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution are also diagnosed by least square method. On this basis, the extent and trend about the threshold of extreme weather of the middle reaches of Yangtze River are analyzed by downscaling method. The interaction between navigation environmental factors and the response mechanism of extreme weather are analyzed. In the meantime, the risk assessment of navigation environment is also made. Based on the Structural Equation Model (SEM), the evolution mechanism model of navigation environmental risk responding to the extreme weather of the middle reaches of Yangtze River is established. Finally, based on the principle of IPCC SREX, the maritime strategies which consisted of modification of ship design standards and survey rules, adjustment of maritime supervision resource, early warning of water transport risk, optimization of emergency response procedure are supplied. The research will make a significant influence on the implement of national development strategy about the Yangtze River economic belt, modification of designed rules about inland river marine engineering and improvement of disaster precaution and reduction about the Yangtze River.

本项目以长江水上极端天气和长江中游通航环境为对象，首先通过基于k 阶最近邻距离丛集点提取算法等方法分析长江中游地区极端天气的群发性和年际变率规律，采用最小二乘法等方法诊断极端天气的时空分布特性，利用降尺度方法等手段研究影响通航环境的极端天气阈值变化趋势。在此基础上，分析极端天气影响下长江中游通航环境因素之间的相互作用和响应极端天气变化的内在机理，研究长江中游通航环境风险演变趋势和变化程度，并根据结构方程模型（SEM）原理，构建长江中游通航环境风险响应极端天气的演化机理模型。最后，基于IPCC SREX风险管理准则，分别从海事工程和海事管理两个角度提出如船舶设计检验标准的修订、海事管理资源配置的调整、水上交通风险因素的预警、突发事件应急处置的优化等海事应对策略。本项目对长江经济带国家战略的实施、内河航运工程设计标准的完善、长江水上防灾减灾能力的提升具有重要实践意义。

认识通航环境对极端天气及其气候变化的响应机理既是亟需跨学科研究的前沿课题，也是长江通航环境管理决策的现实需要。针对研究中水上安全监管机构对极端天气的安全保障和应急响应策略的足等问题，初步发展一个基于长江中游通航环境风险响应极端天气的演化机理模型。基于模型：(1)研究了极端天气事件对长江干线通航环境的影响；(2)开展了长江干线极端天气事件特征频率分析；(3)研发了长江航运气象服务核心技术，并设计与实现了长江航运气象预报预警服务系统。通过定量研究解决了如下关键科学问题：1)对影响通航环境极端天气的定义及其阈值的确定；2)通航环境响应极端天气气候变化的敏感函数研究；3)通航环境风险演变指标体系的构建。项目结果最终能为海事管理机构有效应对极端天气对内河航运的影响提供科学参考和支持，也为国家在长江经济带发展战略的规划和实施、内河水运工程标准的制定及修订、长江航运防灾减灾方案的设计和应用提供科学参考和依据。