短期行动与长期目标的背离：基于动态跨期决策视角的研究

Individuals, enterprises and governments usually set a long-term goal for future development. However, in many cases they may take some actions which are not consistent with the long-term goal or even deviate from it. This deviation may leads to delayed completion or even total failure of the long-term goal. Based on the Theory of Planned Behavior, Expectancy-value Theory, Feedback Theory of Human Behavior and relevant decision-making theories, this research, from a perspective of dynamic intertemporal decision-making, brings about a tentative theoretical framework, which focuses on the decision-making of rival goals and actions. According to this framework, competition between goal-directed action and goal–deviating action is caused by the conflict between temptation and long-term goal. The variation of intention strength to a certain action usually depends on the evaluations of value of goal, difficulty of action implementation, difficulty of goal attainment and action-goal connectedness. With dynamic feedback, reevaluation for both actions and goals may cause the change of intention and action. Based on the framework mentioned above, this study intends to investigate this phenomenon through the methods of field study and simulation experiment. Moreover, the psychological mechanism of the goal-deviating action as well as intervention measures will be investigated in the context of both organizations and individuals. In the end, this research will provide an empirical and practical basis for improving goal-directed actions and preventing goal-deviating actions.

无论企业、政府或个人，都会为未来发展设置长期目标，但其短期行动却经常与长期目标不一致甚至相背离。这种目标背离行动会导致长期目标不能如期实现甚至失败。本项目以计划行为理论、期望-价值理论、行为反馈控制理论和有关行为决策理论为基础，基于动态跨期决策视角，提出目标及行动动态竞争与决策选择的理论框架，认为背离行动的发生源于短期诱惑目标与长期目标相冲突所引发的背离行动与一致行动间的竞争，而采取特定行动的意愿取决于决策者对两类目标价值、目标与行动难度以及行动-目标关联度的评估与比较。随着目标进程中行动结果的持续反馈，决策者对目标和行动的再评估会导致其意愿和行动的动态变化。据此框架，本项目采用现场研究和“一致/背离”动态跨期决策模拟实验等方法，着重探究组织和个人背景下目标背离行动发生的心理与行为机制，并初步探讨干预措施的有效性。研究将为组织和个人减少目标背离行动，促进目标一致行动提供理论和研究依据。

坚守长远目标、保持目标追求行为、减少目标背离行为对个体、组织与国家的未来发展至关重要。本项目采用动态跨期决策理论视角，通过现场研究与模拟实验，考察了目标背离行动的发生规律、内在机制与影响因素，检验了若干干预方法的有效性。. 本项目致力于回答如下问题：（1）组织与个人在推进长期目标时会出现哪些目标背离行动，它们具有何种特点？（2）当决策者出现目标背离行动时，其心理过程是什么，受到哪些因素的影响？（3）哪些方法可减低决策者的目标背离行动倾向？其效果如何？. 为回答上述问题，本项目开展了13项具体实验，取得了一系列研究成果。关于目标背离现象及其机制，研究发现：（1）目标背离倾向通常随目标进程呈倒U型曲线变化，即目标进程中期的背离率显著高于前期与后期；（2）产生目标背离现象的主要心理机制是决策者对目标一致行动和目标背离行动的评估、比较与选择，主要涉及对两类选择的价值评估、难度评估、行动-目标关联度评估；（3）决策者的目标背离倾向受控制感、调节定向、参照点设置、决策策略等因素的影响。. 基于上述成果，本项目进一步考察了若干目标背离干预方法的有效性。结果发现，（1）相较于设置单一长期目标或过度细分的短期目标，设置数量适中的短期目标可减少被试的目标背离行为；（2）相较于提供目标完成量反馈，提供目标推进速度反馈可减少目标背离行为；（3）利用具身方法诱发决策者的主观控制感可减少目标背离行为；（4）诱导决策者使用基于维度的决策策略可减少目标背离行为。. 本项目的主要贡献有（1）首次从动态跨期决策视角解释目标背离现象，为今后研究提供了新思路；（2）首次基于“价值评估、难度评估、行动-目标关联度评估”提出目标背离行为的心理机制，拓展了目标追求理论与跨期决策理论；（3）提出若干目标背离研究的新范式，如动态翻牌任务、字母录入任务等；（4）提出多种可有效减少目标背离行为的干预措施，为组织与个人坚守目标初心提供了参考。