变化环境下珠江流域水-碳平衡演化驱动机制研究

Watershed water balance and carbon balance are intrinsically connected through the processes of photosynthesis and evapotranspiration. The interactions between the water-carbon balance and the environment directly impact ecosystem health and water and food supplies for humans. However, previous studies usually only focused on a single element of water or carbon balance. More research is needed to better understand the tradeoff between water yield and carbon sequestration and their coupled responses to the changing environment. This project aims to tackle the water and eco-environmental issues under the combined impacts of climate change, urbanization, and vegetation restoration in the Pearl River basin in south China. The specific objectives are: (1) to investigate the spatiotemporal patterns and historical variations in key water-carbon cycle components based on datasets from multiple sources and previous modeling studies, (2) to explore the interconnections between water and carbon balances and their responses to the changing environment at ecosystem and watershed scales, (3) to establish a water-carbon coupling model based on distributed hydrological simulation and dynamic water-use efficiency parameters, and 4) to explain the driving mechanism of the historical variations in water-carbon balance and attribute the changes to the environmental factors. This project is expected to improve our understanding of the watershed-level eco-hydrological processes, and to provide useful information and tools for evaluating ecosystem services, managing water and land resources, and making adaptation plans in humid south China.

流域水量平衡与碳平衡通过植物光合作用与蒸散发过程紧密相联，二者与外部环境交互作用，直接关系到地表生态系统的健康稳定与人类社会的供水安全和粮食安全。然而，以往研究往往将水、碳作为单独的研究目标来处理，关于产水和固碳之间权衡关系与二者对变化环境耦合响应机理的基础研究依然薄弱。针对珠江流域在气候变化、快速城市化、大规模植被修复等因素交织叠加影响之下所面临的水资源与生态环境问题，本项目拟结合多源数据融合与数值模拟研究，揭示流域水-碳平衡关键要素的时空格局与历史演化规律，探索生态系统与流域尺度上水-碳耦合关系及其对变化环境的响应，构建基于分布式水文模拟与动态水分利用效率的水-碳耦合模型，解析流域水-碳平衡演化驱动机制与各环境变化因子的贡献率。项目研究将丰富流域生态水文过程基础理论与模拟方法，为合理评价华南湿润地区生态服务功能、协同水土资源管理、制定气候变化适应性对策提供科学基础与技术支撑。

流域水量平衡与碳平衡通过植物光合作用与蒸散发过程紧密相联，直接关系到地表生态系统的健康稳定与人类社会的供水安全和粮食安全。然而，关于产水和固碳之间权衡关系与二者对变化环境耦合响应机理的基础研究依然薄弱。本项目针对珠江流域在复合环境变化影响下所面临的水资源与生态环境问题，揭示了流域水碳平衡关键要素的时空格局与历史演化规律，构建了基于分布式水文模拟与水分利用效率的流域水碳耦合模型，项目研究有助于丰富流域生态水文过程基础理论与模拟方法，为合理评价华南湿润地区生态服务功能、协同水土资源管理、制定气候变化适应性对策提供科学基础与技术支撑。本项目完成学术论文13篇，其中SCI论文8篇，EI论文2篇；申请公开国家发明专利6项，其中授权国家发明专利2项；出版专著2部；注册软件著作权4项。