西北太平洋上爆发性气旋发展机理的研究

Explosive cyclone is a family of rapidly-developing cyclonic systems that have a central sea level pressure decrease normalized at 60N over 24 hPa in a day (Sanders and Gyakum, 1980). As explosive cyclones often cause severe weather, they are thought to be one of the most dangerous weather systems.They frequently appeared over the Northwestern Pacific in the cold season, and had complicated development mechanisms.This program is designed as a comprehensive study on various explosive cyclones over the Northwestern Pacific by using almost all available high-resolution observational data within recent decade, such as FNL (Final Analyses, 1 × 1 ), CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis, 0.5 × 0.5 ), RANAL (Regional Analysis， 20 km × 20 km), COSMIC (The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and the Climate), MTSAT-1 (Multifunctional Transport the Satellite-1) infrared satellite data, MODIS (Moderate-resolution Imaging, Spectroradiometer) visible satellite data, as well as the coupled ocean-atmosphere model of WRF (the Weather Research and Forecasting model) / ROMS (the Regional the Ocean model System). The main contents include: (1) Relationship between the moving paths, the spatial-temporal structures of various explosive cyclones over the Northwestern Pacific and the large-scale atmospheric and the marine environments in the cold season; (2) Comparative analyses of different development mechanisms of various explosive cyclones over the Northwestern Pacific; (3) Influences of the topography, sea surface temperature field and the diabatic heating field on the development mechanisms of various explosive cyclones over the Northwestern Pacific; (4) Structures and evolutionary processes of the frontal system associated with various explosive cyclones over the Northwestern Pacific; The present program aims to enhance the better understanding of the developemnt mechanisms of various explosive cyclones over the Northwestern Pacific. This program has important academic and practical value in order to ensure the maritime navigation safety. And it can provide scientific basis for improving the forecasting accuracy of this kind of dangerous weather system over the Northwestern Pacific.

本项目拟利用2000年以后尽可能多的最新观测资料[如FNL(1 ×1 ), CFSR(0.5 × 0.5 ), RANAL(20 km ×20 km), COSMIC, MTSAT-1红外卫星资料和MODIS可见光卫星资料], 以及WRF /ROMS海气耦合模式, 采用资料分析、数值模拟和理论研究相结合的研究手段，开展近十年来西北太平洋爆发性气旋的时空演变特征及发展机理研究。主要内容有：(1)冷季西北太平洋爆发性气旋的移动路径、时空结构与大尺度大气和海洋环境场关系研究；(2)爆发性气旋不同发展机理的分析比较；(3)大地形、海表面温度场和非绝热加热场对爆发性气旋发展机理影响的研究；(4)西北太平洋爆发性气旋所伴随的锋面系统结构和演变过程研究。本项目对于加深对海上爆发性气旋运动规律的认识,减少和防止自然灾害,具有重要的学术和实践价值,可以为提高西北太平洋爆发性气旋的预报水平提供科学依据。

爆发性气旋是一种在海洋上发展的强烈的天气系统，有“气象炸弹”之称，其发生发展的动力学机制一直是国际大气和海洋学界关注的最具挑战性的问题之一。由于爆发性气旋常常会带来狂风暴雨(雪)等恶劣天气，被认为是威胁船舶航行安全最危险的天气系统之一。然而由于过去受到海上观测资料稀少等限制，其发生发展的机制至今仍不十分清楚。本项目的研究目标是利用尽可能多的观测资料[如FNL(1°×1°), CFSR(0.5°×0.5°), RANAL(20 km× 20km), MTSAT-1红外卫星资料和MODIS可见光卫星资料],以及WRF/ROMS海气耦合模式,采用资料分析、数值模拟和理论研究相结合的手段，开展西北太平洋爆发性气旋的时空演变特征及发展机理研究。在国家自然科学基金41275049的资助下，我们不但加深了对北太平洋上爆发性气旋发生发展物理机制的认识(Fu et al., 2015;庞华基和傅刚,2016;张树钦等,2016;高力等,2016;刘珊和傅刚,2016;戴晶等,2017)，还丰富了前一个国家自然科学基金40675060《渤黄海海雾的观测分析与数值模拟研究》的研究成果(傅刚和宋亚娟, 2014;高山红等, 2014; Guo et al., 2015;Wang et al., 2015;Li et al., 2016;傅刚等, 2016;王永明和高山红, 2016)。取得的主要研究成果有：(1)建立了2000年至2015年北太平洋(20°N-65°N, 110°E-100°W)爆发性气旋的数据库,对783个爆发性气旋的初始生成经纬度、初始生成时刻、生命史、中心最低气压、最大加深率时刻、中心最低气压时刻、移动路径等信息进行登记。(2)分析了西北太平洋爆发性气旋三个典型个例，提出了高、中、低空PV相互作用可促使爆发性气旋旋生与发展的新观点(庞华基和傅刚，2016)。(3)已在国内外学术刊物上发表论文15篇，还有8篇论文(其中包括国际SCI刊物论文2篇，国内SCI刊物论文1篇)正在审稿中(其中3篇已定清样)。(4)培养毕业博士研究生1人(庞华基)，硕士研究生6人(王皘、王帅、孙雅文、周聪、戴晶、高力)，还有3名博士研究生(张树钦、徐杰、孙雅文)和2名硕士研究生(井苗苗、刘珊)在读。无论是培养研究生的数量和质量、还是(拟)发表论文的数量都全面超额完成了本基金项目设定的工作任务。