农业基础设施的粮食增产效应及其影响机理研究

Agricultural infrastructure is the “first capital” of agricultural modernization. Under the background of grain production increasing by eleven times，agricultural infrastructure is vital to continuously promote grain production futher.Guided by the theory that agricultural infrastructure promotes agricultural economy, the research tries to construct the theory of agricultural infrastructure promoting grain production and evaluation framework of the increasing effect of grain production. Firstly, the research evaluates the status of agricultural infrastructure by the method of PIM, uses statistical methods to descriptively analyze grain production and yield characters, and analyses the influencing factors of grain increasing production by the extended CD model. Based on the data of national level, the research constructs the long-term equilibrium model and short-term fluctuation model of agricultural infrastructure and increasing grain production to analyze the long-term effect and short-term effect. Based on the provincial panel data, the research evaluates the increasing effect of grain production of agricultural infrastructure by simultaneous equations, and analyzes the differences of species, region and project covering of increasing effect of grain production produced by agricultural infrastructure through using the CD function, the GWR and DID methods respectively. Following economic growth theory, the research explore the mechanism that agricultural infrastructure promotes the grain yields in terms of increasing path, efficiency increase,cost saving and external effects. Then, the research analyze the factors that agricultural infrastructure influences increasing effect of grain production by Tobit model. Finally, some suggestions to promote the increasing effect of grain production produced by agricultural infrastructure are put forward.

农业基础设施是农业现代化的“先行资本”。在粮食产量实现“十一连增”的背景下，要想进一步持续促进粮食增产，农业基础设施至关重要。以基础设施促进农业经济增长理论为指导，力图构建农业基础设施促进粮食增产的理论和效应评估框架。运用PIM等方法评估农业基础设施现状，运用统计方法描述粮食生产情况和增产特征，运用扩展CD模型分析粮食增产的影响因素；基于全国层面数据构建评估农业基础设施和粮食增产的长期均衡模型和短期波动模型分析其长期效应和短期效应；以省级面板数据采用联立方程方法评估农业基础设施的粮食增产效应，运用CD函数、GWR和DID方法分别分析农业基础设施粮食增产效应的种类差异、区域差异和项目覆盖差异。遵循经济增长理论，从增产路径、效率提升、成本节约和外部效应探索农业基础设施粮食增产效应的机理。运用Tobit模型分析农业基础设施粮食增产效应的影响因素。提出增进农业基础设施粮食增产效应的政策建议。

粮食安全就是重大国家安全战略之一，一个完善的、高效率的农业基础设施系统是农业发展的核心和“先行资本”，是保障国家粮食安全的重要内容和根本支撑。中国农业基础设施严重滞后于农业现代化发展。通过研究农业基础设施与粮食产量之间关系，对保障国家粮食安全、强化农业基础和促进农业现代化具有重要的现实意义和长远的战略意义。课题以农业基础设施建设促进农业经济增长理论为指导，构建了一个包含“整体程度、时间长度、空间宽度、种类维度、项目覆盖深度”的粮食增产效应评估框架：总体上看，农业基础设施投资显著促进了粮食增产；从时间长度上看，加大农业基础设施投入有利于粮食增产，但是短期效应不明显；从空间宽度上看，三大主粮主产区域的粮食生产对农业基础设施的需求存在明显的差异；从种类维度上看，三种类型的农业基础设施对粮食增产效应的强弱排序为“农田水利设施>农业电力设施>农村交通设施”；从项目覆盖深度上看，高标准农田建设促进了粮食增产，但对复种指数的大幅提升也使得稻谷生产陷入了某种程度的“内卷化”困境。课题还从“效率提升、成本节约、结构优化”分析了中国农业基础设施促进粮食增产的影响机理：效率提升路径下，农田水利基础设施对粮食全要素生产率有显著的正向影响，农村交通基础设施、农业电力基础设施对粮食全要素生产率的作用不显著；成本节约路径下，农业基础设施存量的增加能显著降低粮食生产的平均成本（规模效应）；结构优化路径下，农田水利基础设施、农村交通基础设施对粮食作物种植比例有显著的正向效应，农业电力基础设施对粮食作物种植比例的影响不显著。最后提出几点政策建议优化我国农业基础设施建设，进而提高我国粮食综合生产能力。