跨国并购驱动高端装备制造业技术升级的机制：产品空间理论视角

The absence of technology and competence is the major factors that break down the upgrading of high-end equipment manufacturing industry. With the framework of product space theory, this project will consider the product innovation as the target of upgrading; discuss how the high-end equipment manufacturing industry upgrades to new product level driven by transnational M&A. So the upgrading can be analyzed on the specific level of product innovation. Firstly, according to the three characteristics of high-end equipment manufacturing, the path of upgrading will be provided based on the cooperation among enterprises, government and financial institutions. Secondly, the mechanism of technology selection will be designed for discovering the technology condition of upgrading. There are two principles of design. One is the asymmetric technology competence between Chinese enterprises and these enterprises of developed countries; another is that the competence of Chinese enterprises should be compatible with the technology owned by foreign enterprises. Thirdly, the mechanism of R&D fund allocation also will be designed for discovering the competence condition of upgrading. There are also two considerations. One is the different functions among enterprises, government and financial institutions; another is that the result of technology selection should be taken as the target of allocation. Fourthly, the integrating between the competence and the technology will be explored for discovering the fulfilling mechanism of upgrading. The logistic relationship among product space evolution, dynamic improvement of competence and upgrading will be revealed. Finally, typical industries and enterprises will be utilized as policy study and case study. In the project, the product space theory will be expanded to investigate upgrading of the specific industry; the policies will be re-considered when the transnational M&A is viewed as the driver of upgrading.

技术条件和能力条件的缺失，是高端装备制造业技术升级断档的两大原因。本项目使用产品空间理论的分析框架，将技术升级落实到具体的产品层面，以产品创新作为升级的阶段性目标，系统研究跨国并购驱动高端装备制造业技术升级的机制。首先，根据高端装备制造的三大特征，以企业与政府、金融机构三方协同耦合关系为主线，提出升级的路径。然后，从中外双方实力不对称入手，根据外方技术应匹配于中方能力的原则，设计技术选择协同机制，探讨升级的技术条件。接着，针对企业与政府、金融机构的功能差异，将技术选择结果作为配置对象，构建研发资金配置耦合机制，探讨升级的能力条件。再者，专门研究中方能力与外方技术的对接机制，揭示产品空间演化、动态技术能力提升与升级的内生演进，探讨升级的实施机制。最后，针对典型行业和企业，开展政策和案例研究。不仅拓展了产品空间理论在特定产业技术升级中的应用，还从促进跨国并购角度拓宽了政策空间。

自“十一五”开始，国家实施加快发展高端装备制造业的重要战略举措，出台一系列政策支持中方企业并购发达国家的企业，掌握关键核心技术，推动高端装备制造业的技术升级。本项目从并购双方技术重叠、产品相似性和高管特征入手，系统探讨了跨国并购驱动高端装备制造业技术升级的条件和机制，着重分析了行业内并购对企业研发的影响机制、海外并购对中国企业投资效率的作用机制、以及经济政策的实施对并购及创新效果的影响等。利用万得数据库（Wind）、国泰安经济金融研究数据库（CSMAR）、Zephyr全球并购数据库等的数据，本项目对这些条件和机制进行了实证研究，研究结论包括三方面。其一，从并购对研发的作用看，并购可能性越大、企业预期市场竞争压力越大、研发水平越高；当企业间存在技术重叠时，更容易通过并购来达成能力匹配，且技术重叠程度越高，企业的创新水平也越高；同时，产品相似性对企业并购也具有正向的促进效果，企业并购后，产品相似性程度越高，并购方的创新水平也会随之显著提升。其二，由于海外并购后会造成企业业务整合和组织重构的双重不确定性，使得海外并购降低了中国企业的投资效率，具体表现为加剧了企业的过度投资。其三，从动机来看，企业开展海外并购是为了对冲经济政策不确定性对成长的负面影响，这种对冲效应在民营企业中显著强于国有企业。这些研究结论对中国并购政策的制订、混合所有制改革措施的出台等提供了判断依据和决策参考。