基于网络大数据的人类合作行为分析

What is the mechanism driving the formation, persistence, and evolution of the cooperation? Such question is one of the 25 scientific puzzles that are driving basic scientific research. To answer this question, we first investigate the occurring patterns of cooperation activities and the way of selecting cooperative counterparties and explore the evolutionary patterns of the cooperation networks and the stability factors of cooperation organizations by means of the theories and methods from complex networks and human dynamics and the analyzing techniques of big data. We try to uncover the influence factors of individual cooperation behaviors through grouping users according to their attributions, cooperation activities, and cooperative preferences. The underlying mechanisms of cooperation will be proposed according to the empirical patterns from the huge dataset. A computational model will be put forward according to the proposed mechanisms abstracted from the empirical results. The economic explanations of the mechanisms will be given based on the individual performance and group performance. The business applications of our research, including forecasting leaving users, identifying abnormal users, designing strategies for precise marketing, recommending collaborators, are further conducted to improve commercial value of virtual society for operators.

人类合作行为究竟是如何形成、维持和演化的？该问题是“驱动基础科学研究以及决定未来科学研究方向”的25个重大科学难题之一[Science 309(2005) 75]。本项目拟利用在线虚拟社会用户合作行为日志数据尝试研究该问题，运用大数据分析、人类行为动力学和复杂网络的理论和方法，在微观层面揭示个体合作行为的发生模式和合作对象选取方式，在宏观层面揭示合作网络的演化规律和合作组织的稳定因素。根据个体属性、合作行为和合作偏好，运用大数据分析技术细分用户，探索合作行为的影响因素，提炼个体合作行为发生和个体间合作关系形成的内在机理，构建个体合作机理模型，并进一步利用个体绩效和群体绩效探索合作机理的经济学解释，研究合作行为的商业应用场景，如用户流失预警、异常用户识别、精细化营销和合作推荐系统等，为提高虚拟社会商业运营价值提供技术手段和科学方法。

利用在线虚拟社会网络用户行为日志数据，本项目运用统计物理、复杂性科学和复杂网络的理论和方法，对用户合作行为程式化规律和产生机理进行了深入研究，重点关注了合作机理在实证层面与应用层面的研究。研究成果加深了我们对虚实社会网络的拓扑结构、虚拟用户合作行为过程中的标度性与记忆性、多机理交织的虚拟社会中各合作机理与合作行为间的因果关系，以及亲社会合作机理在医疗众筹项目筹资中应用的理解，同时，进一步深化了大数据在用户合作行为规律探索和合作机理实证研究上的应用。本项目共计完成标注论文6篇，其中2篇已经发表，1篇投稿至PNAS，1篇投稿至系统工程理论与实践、1篇投稿至Empirical Economics，1篇投稿至International Review of Financial Analysis；2篇发表的论文均被SCI/SSCI收录。