不确定环境下基于QFD和CPT的产品概念方案开发研究

The product conceptual alternative meeting with customer demands under uncertainty environment has a great significance of theory and practice. This project will investigate the problem of developing product conceptual alternative by using the theories of quality function deployment(QFD), linguistic multiple attribute decision making, random multiple attribute decision making and cumulative prospect theory(CPT). The main contents will be investigated as following: the uncertainty of demanding information can serve as an entry point, a flow model of requirement information will be presented, and then the theory and method of final importance ratings will be proposed according to the model. The product planning house of quality(PPHoQ) and the optimal model of engineering characteristics based on dynamic requirements will be built, according to the proposed models, the relationship values of PPHoQ and the competition priority ratings will be analyzed from the viewpoint of system science. A roughing mode will be developed to solve the problem of the target values of engineering characteristics with normal random variables, and for reflecting the characteristics of decision-makers’ psychology and behavior in an effective way, an approach based on CPT will be presented. Solving the research contents not only requires the in-depth invetisgation of theory, but also need to discuss the applications of the proposed novel theories and methods according to the actual instances of many corporations in China in order to advance the levels of product developing in the corporations.

在不确定环境下开发满足顾客需求的产品概念方案具有重要的理论和现实意义。本项目将利用质量功能配置、语言型多属性决策、随机多属性决策和累积前景理论等，研究不确定环境下产品概念方案的开发问题。研究的主要内容为：以不确定环境中的需求信息为切入点，构建需求信息的流向模型，据此建立顾客需求最终重要度分析的理论与方法。构建基于动态需求的产品规划质量屋和工程特性最优值的配置模型，并根据实际情况对产品规划质量屋的功能关系和竞争优先度进行系统估计。针对工程特性目标值分布和顾客心理行为的特征，提出基于正态随机和累积前景理论的产品概念方案的评价模型。研究内容的解决需要从理论上深入研究，也需要根据我国企业的实际情况探讨新理论、新方法的应用途径，以提升其产品的开发水平。

针对不确定环境下产品概念方案的设计和选择问题，本项目通过基于不确定语言多属性决策和累积前景理论对产品开发方法进行研究，取得了一些进展：针对产品开发早期的信息不确定性，提出了基于多粒度语言短语的决策方法用以确定顾客需求和工程特性的重要度，这种方法允许决策者根据偏好选择不同的语言短语集。为了以有效的方式反映决策者的心理和行为特征，提出了基于不确定语言信息熵和累积前景理论的产品概念方案选择方法。此外，本项目对不确定环境下基于语言短语和前景理论的决策方法使用进行了扩展应用。