多能网络模型及动态演化机理研究

Multi-carrier energy system has been becoming an important research direction after the upsurge in research of the smart grid. One distinguished feature of the energy internet is the complementary utilizing of multiple energy resources, i.e. integrating multiple physical infrastructures involve electricity, natural gas, and heat, constituting a sort of integrated energy network, which aims at enhancing the energy efficiency and reduce the production cost. The diversity in energy forms, complexity of system dynamics, and uncertainties of production impose unprecedented challenges on the modeling and evolutionary analysis of the multi-carrier energy network: how to simulate and analyze system state and how to reveal the evolution of system configuration under complex physical and operation environment? In order to tackle these challenges, this project intends to launch a systematic research on the energy production, transition, transmission, storage, and consumption processes, and develop a generalized energy flow model for the coupled network. Based on Engineering Game Theory, we will build differential game theoretical models which describes system transient behavior and multi-leader-follower game models which describes system steady-state conditions. We will also explore driving forces which impact system evolution, establish duplicator dynamic equations which characterize system evolution progress, and calculate evolutionary stable strategies. Finally, we will develop a comprehensive simulation and decision support platform, which could offer strategic decisions for planning, operation and control of the multi-carrier energy network.

多能互补网络是现代能源电力系统继智能电网之后又一重要发展方向，其显著特征是多能互补，即通过将电、气、热等不同形式能源的物理系统互联，构成一类综合能源系统，旨在提升能源利用率，降低单位产值能耗。由于一次能源的多样性、系统动态过程的复杂性以及供能的不确定性，决定了此类多能互补网络建模与演化分析将面临巨大挑战——复杂物理系统以及复杂运行环境下如何分析模拟系统运行状态及如何揭示系统发展演化规律？为应对上述挑战，本项目拟对多能互补网络的能量生产、传输、转换、消费、存储等环节进行系统研究，建立广义能流模型。基于工程博弈论，构建计及多主体和不确定性的描述系统稳定运行状态的主从博弈模型和描述系统暂态过程的微分博弈模型；探索多能源网络发展的驱动因素，构建系统演化的复制者动态模型并求解演化稳定均衡。研发多能互补网络一体化仿真模拟平台，为多能互补网络系统规划设计与运行控制提供理论依据。

多能互补网络是现代能源电力系统近年来的一个重要发展方向，通过对对电、气、热等不同形式能源的综合利用提升能源利用率。由于一次能源的多样性、系统动态过程的复杂性以及供能的不确定性，多能互补网络在建模和演化分析两个方面均存在困难。为此，本项目针对多能互补网络的建模理论及动态演化机理开展深入研究，提出了“焓㶲”广义能流模型，建立了燃气轮机、锅炉、热泵、压缩空气储能等能量转换设备的模型，实现了多能互补系统的一体化建模和分析；提出了多能源系统优化调度方法，提出了市场机制设计及均衡分析方法，实现了不同能源系统的协同优化运行；建立了多能互补网络演化博弈模型，并提出了演化均衡的求解方法和均衡稳定性的判别条件，分析了演化稳定均衡的影响因素，并针对城市供暖系统演化问题、光伏发电与电动汽车充电合作行为演化问题和电动汽车充电站规划方案等问题给出了指导性意见；研发了多能互补网络仿真模拟平台，并通过物理实验系统进行模型验证。发表论文60篇，其中SCI检索37篇，EI检索18篇；申请发明专利14项，授权5项。研究成果获省部级科技奖励4项。