中国进口非关税措施影响制造业企业生产率的理论机制与实证效应研究

After the establishment of the GATT and the formation of the WTO, most countries in the world gradually reduced their import tariff to a fairly low level. However, the decline in tariffs cannot simply be interpreted as the reduction on trade barriers. In the era of tariff liberalization, non-tariff measures (NTMs) are becoming increasingly important and have been proliferating around the world. Due to the difficulty of NTMs data collection, analysis on the economic impact of NTMs is ambiguity. In this project, we construct the China NTM dataset by downloading 261 official documents from 6 Chinese government websites and screening out 429 trade-related policy measures. Then we utilize this newly detailed NTM data, together with data on tariffs, the annual survey of industrial enterprises and China’s General Administration of Customs, to examine the impact of Chinese NTMs on manufacturing firms’ total factor productivity (TFP). By estimating the ad-valorem equivalents of NTMs as well as by constructing trade restriction index of import NTMs, we empirically study the impact of trade policy NTMs and public policy NTMs on manufacturing firm-level and industry-level total factor productivity.. This project would discuss more on the impact of technical barriers to trade (TBT) on TFP of processing trade enterprises using the micro-firm data during the period 2000 to 2006. It is suggested that TBT can promote TFP of processing firms with assembly, but restrict TFP of processing firms with inputs, and larger firms suffer a stronger impact. The extra gain on productivity improvement from foreign investment is true for firms which are processing with inputs only. Second, TBT can impose more positive impacts on processing trade firms in the high-capital, low-pollution industries and those located in the eastern areas. Third, the positive impacts of TBT on the productivity become less as firms’ share of processing with assembly grows.. This project investigates the structure and extent of firm-level trade barriers and enriches the research on import trade policy and the upgrading of manufacturing industry in typical transition economies. It can help Chinese government build new trade rules and participate in international trade negotiations. It is also insightful for China's combined use of industrial trade policy and public policy to promote manufacturing industry high-quality development. Besides, we are the first to examine linkages between Chinese tariff reduction and the concurrent adoption of NTMs at the country and product level for the period of 1992-2012, as the supplement to the previous studies on trade liberalization and the theory of endogenous protection based on the developed countries, as an important step toward a better understanding of the China’s NTM enforcement from the perspective of the institution improvement.

自1947年《关贸总协定》和1995年WTO成立以来，全球关税总水平显著下降。然而，关税的下降不能简单地被解读为贸易壁垒的降低。当关税减让空间变小，非关税措施（NTMs）逐渐成为重要的政治议题和谈判焦点。由于NTMs种类庞杂，数据采集和识别难度大，评估其经济影响一直是学术界的难题。通过整合官方文件，筛选出其中的NTMs，并将其与我国HS-6位产品的关税、海关进出口数据和工业企业数据交互匹配，本项目测度了我国制造业企业进口遭遇非关税壁垒水平、结构和程度，并通过估计进口NTMs的关税等价和贸易限制指数，实证研究传统贸易政策NTMs和新型公共政策NTMs对制造业全要素生产率的影响。本项目扩展了进口贸易政策推动典型转型经济体的制造业升级的研究，有助于我国构建国际贸易新规则和参与国际贸易谈判，也有助于主动扩大进口下我国产业贸易政策与公共政策协同推动制造业高质量发展。

当今世界是规则重塑时代，制度与规则是必争之地，是大国之间竞争核心。在世界贸易组织的推动下，全球关税总水平显著下降，许多用于生产的中间投入产品进口被免征关税，除农业部门外的大量进口数量限制也被拆除。然而，全球范围的关税大幅度削减增加了非关税措施（Non-tariff Measures，NTMs）作为保护主义和贸易管理工具的重要性，推动NTMs成为重要的政治议题和谈判焦点。由于NTMs种类庞杂，数据采集和识别难度大，评估其经济影响一直是学术界的难题。因此，本项目通过下载和整合我国政府机构发布的相关文件和官方通告，依据UNCTAD（2012）对NTMs的最新分类标准，构建了中国1978-2019年HS-6位产品层面NTMs数据库，分析关税与NTMs的替代互补关系。在此基础上，将NTMs数据库与我国HS-6位产品的关税、海关进出口数据和工业企业数据交互匹配，测度了我国制造业企业进口遭遇NTMs的水平、结构和程度，研究不同类型NTMs对制造业企业全要素生产率的影响效果。主要结果显示，我国实施的进口技术性贸易壁垒（Technical Barriers to Trade，TBT）显著促进了进料加工贸易企业生产率提升，抑制了从事来料加工贸易企业的生产率，并且随着企业从事来料加工贸易份额增加，TBT对加工贸易企业生产率的促进效应逐渐减小。分行业检验结果表明，我国TBT显著提升了资本密集型、低污染及东部地区加工贸易企业生产率。此外，为了研究NTM影响企业生产率的作用机制，考察了NTMs对我国进口贸易的影响，发现我国实施的NTMs不仅有效提高了进口中间品的规模，优化了进口中间品种类和产品种类和国家来源，更实现了进口中间品质量的显著提升。本项目成果深化了对企业全要素生产率进步来源的认识，加强了产业贸易政策和公共政策驱动制造业升级的理解，为推动以制度型开放引领新一轮高水平对外开放提供了经验支撑和政策建议。