气候变化背景下海河流域水资源脆弱性与适应性管理的理论方法与应用研究

The impact of climate change on water resources security is a challenging issue with widespread concern globally. It is as well the great strategic issue in the national sustainable development of China. There are several great challenges on climate change and water in China. It is one of hot study topics on water resources vulnerability and its adaptive management in Hai river basin under the climate change. It is known that quantifying water resources vulnerability to climate change and human activity is the scientific foundation of adaptive water management. However, there are several key issues to need to be studied in the world, i.e., how to quantify water resources vulnerability and to estimate scientifically water demands to changing environment, how to build up an interactive and feed back water system to link with water resources vulnerability and adaptation? .This proposed project will study the theory and method of water resources vulnerability and adaptation, taking Hai River basin as the target. Major contents include: (1) building a water system model to link water cycle variation with impact actions of different climate scenario and socio-economic scenario; (2) developing a functional system and method of quantify water resources vulnerability based on integration of sensitivity, resilience and adaptation; (3) analyzing water consumption mechanism of basin system under the socio-economic development, and decoupling water resources from economic growth; and (4) proposing adaptive water management to climate change impact in Hai River Basin. .Innovations and Special Features will focus on putting forward new theories and methods to assess the water resources vulnerability under climate change. On the basis of seasonal variation of water supply and demand in Hai River basin, a series of theory relations and equations will be developed on integration of sensitivity, resilience and adaptation, also a set of maps on water resources vulnerability will be produced and the maps are expected to make an important contribution to develop the adaptive strategies for climate change and human activity.

气候变化与人类活动影响的水资源脆弱性是应对气候变化的适应性管理与对策的科学基础。但是如何科学量化变化环境下流域水资源的脆弱性？如何科学分析环境变化下水资源的需求规律？如何构建将水资源脆弱性与适应性互动的评估方法与调控理论体系等，是目前国际国内迫切需要探索与研究的难题。本项目以水资源供需矛盾最为尖锐的华北地区海河流域为对象，重点研究变化环境下流域水资源脆弱性与适应性理论与方法，包括：联系气候变化影响情景和社会经济情景的流域水系统模型，发展将环境变化对水资源影响的敏感性、抗压性和适应性综合的水资源脆弱性函数分析体系与方法；研究社会经济发展与生产、生活和生态用水的关系，探索气候变化背景下如何我国提高水资源利用效率的解耦理论与途径；提出应对气候变化影响、保障水资源安全及区域可持续发展的水资源管理的适应性对策若干应用支撑的成果。

气候变化与人类活动影响的水资源脆弱性是应对气候变化的适应性管理与对策的科学基础。科学量化变化环境下流域水资源的脆弱性、科学分析环境变化下水资源的需求规律、构建将水资源脆弱性与适应性互动的评估方法与调控理论体系等，是目前国际国内迫切需要探索与研究的难题。..本项目以水资源供需矛盾最为尖锐的海河流域为对象，（1）发展了水资源脆弱性分析的理论与方法，建立了气候变化对水资源影响的暴露度、水旱灾害、敏感性和抗压性综合的水资源脆弱性评价模型，较本团队前期科研成果新增加了脆弱性的风险分析和水质参数等相关成果。（2）分析了海河流域社会经济发展与生产、生活和生态需（用）水的关系，定量分析评价了海河流域2000年和未来最不利情景水资源脆弱性，总体上海河流域的水资源被过度开发利用，承载人口远超过水资源的承载能力，经济社会和人类生活挤占生态用水，给水资源的压力过大，水资源整体抗压能力低，导致海河流域水资源脆弱性高；预估了未来海河流域水资源供需关系及脆弱性的变化态势，在气候变化与人类活动双重作用下，海河流域未来的水资源脆弱性有增有减，但总体上海河流域在未来仍然处于严重水资源脆弱区。（3）提出了气候变化背景下水资源适应性管理对策。发展了以脆弱性评价与适应性管理的互联、互动系统（整体）的适应性管理与对策、风险分析的适应性系统框架；提出了半定量到定量化、螺旋式上升的系统综合和优化决策以及非线性多目标规划的模型方法；创新了考虑水资源脆弱性下的水资源适应性管理，提出了海河流域应对气候变化水资源可持续管理的具体适应性对策。..在项目执行期间，项目组共在国内外发表学术论文23篇，SCI收录7篇，EI收录5篇，（其中项目第一标注SCI/EI论文5篇，第二标注SCI/EI论文3篇）。参加国内外学术交流8次。培养研究生7名。出版了《气候变化影响下中国水资源的脆弱性与适应对策》专著。..项目负责人夏军2014年获 “国际水文科学奖-Volker奖章”，2015年被增选为中国科学院院士。