多中心城市空间结构的经济绩效研究

The Chinese urbanization strategy of coordinated development among large, medium and small-sized cities is to be implemented through controlling megacities' size and promoting medium amd samll cities, which bases on the notion of polycentralized urban size distribution. However, its result in practice is far from satisfactory: the central cities are keeping on increasing and new towns are short of enough attraction. Questions arise such as, whether the polycentric strategy is in accordance with the market economy rules, whether its economic performance is superior to the monocentric one, and how the polycentric strategy can be carried out properly. The existing literature at home and abroad has not given satisfying answers to them. Based on the literature study and theoretical analysis,this research measures the spatial polycentricity of more than 200 cities at the prefecture and above levels and tests empirically the effects of polycentric spatial structure on the urban labor productivity and economic growth rate with the tools of classical econometric models and spatial econometric models. We further analyze empirically the underlying mechanisms of polycentric urban spatial structure in improving economic performance, which is supposed to reduce the agglomeration diseconomy including the costs of land and commute, and possess the advantages both in the combined scale economy and in the specialized labour division. This research aims to give proper answers to the questions raised above and provide evidence for the governmental decision-making and the implementation of national urbanization strategy. At the same time it will help to enrich the research framework of urban geography and economic geography and provide Chinese experience for the relevant theory formation.

通过控制特大城市规模和积极发展中小城市(镇)以"促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展"的国家城镇化战略，实质是城市规模分布多中心化的思路，但已有实践效果并不乐观,中心城市规模有增无减,新城吸引力不足。于是产生了疑问，多中心战略是否符合市场经济规律？是否比单中心具有更好的经济绩效？该如何正确推进这一战略？已有的国内外研究都不能给出满意答案。本项目在理论研究和文献分析基础上，以我国200多个地级及以上城市为样本，从市区和市域两个尺度，定量测度城市空间结构的多中心化程度，采用计量经济和空间计量手段检验多中心城市空间结构的经济绩效，并从降低成本（集聚不经济）、组合规模和专业化分工三个方面揭示多中心结构影响经济绩效的机制和因素，力图回答上述问题，为国家城镇化战略提供决策依据和实施思路，同时也有助于丰富城市地理学研究框架，深化新经济地理学关于集聚与经济增长之间关系的研究，并为相关的理论构建提供中国经验。

国家长期实施控制特大城市规模和积极发展中小城市(镇)以"促进大中小城市和小城镇协调发展"的城镇化战略，实质是城市规模分布多中心化的思路，但已有实践效果并不乐观,大城市规模有增无减，小城市吸引力不足。于是产生了疑问，多中心战略是否符合市场经济规律？是否比单中心具有更好的经济绩效？该如何正确推进这一战略？鉴于已有的国内外研究都不能给出满意答案，本项目以我国200多个地级及以上城市为样本，从市区和市域两个尺度，定量测度城市空间结构的多中心化程度，采用计量经济和空间计量手段检验多中心城市空间结构的经济绩效及其机制。研究发现：（1）空间尺度在城市空间结构的经济绩效方面扮演了重要角色，市区尺度，多中心更有助于提高城市经济绩效；市域尺度则是单中心的结构具有更好的经济绩效。（2）市区尺度多中心结构具有更好经济绩效，其机制之一在于多中心可以降低集聚不经济，包括通勤时耗节约和地价的降低。（3）次中心的形成对于多中心结构的构建至关重要，但目前不少城市实践经验显示，政策作用还有很大提高空间。政策启示是，引导超大城市市区多中心化是空间结构优化的重要方向，而市域尺度则单中心集聚的经济绩效更佳。研究发现为国家城镇化战略提供决策依据和实施思路，相关研究报告得到市政府领导批示和肯定，对政策制定起到重要参考作用；同时也丰富了相关理论的解释框架。