基于家庭迁居视角的大都市圈“临界发展型城镇”的发展机制及规划导控研究

Under the influence of macroeconomic structural adjustment in recent years, with the deepening of regional high-quality development, the development model of China’s metropolitan regions has gradually changed from a polarized development model dominated by central cities to a coordinated development model of large, medium and small towns. Population, industry and institutions have been transferring orderly from central cities of the metropolitan regions to surrounding cities and towns. In particular, driven by the internal demands of family reunion and family housing in cities in the process of population urbanization, a large number of central city families migrate to this type of towns to buy houses and settle down. The large-scale family migration has profoundly affected the local urbanization process. New town types and new urbanization in the metropolitan regions have emerged. Against this background, this study defines the towns in the metropolitan regions that are highly dependent on the adjacent central cities, attract large numbers of central cities’ families, but have significant spatial boundary effect as “peripheral developmental towns”. This study will conduct empirical research on the cases of the typical “peripheral developmental towns” in Shanghai metropolitan region and Nanjing metropolitan region. The main research contents are as follows: (1) by combining quantitative and qualitative analysis, this study will scientifically define “peripheral developmental towns” and conduct a systematic research on the phenomenon of family migration; (2) adopting econometric analysis technology, this study will systematically assess the urbanization driving effect of family migration on “peripheral developmental towns” and explore the matching and interaction law of “family-space”; and (3) using a variety of analytical methods, this study will analyze the urbanization path and impact mechanism of “peripheral developmental towns” affected by family migration, and explore the planning responses to the requirement of high-quality development of “peripheral developmental towns” in the metropolitan regions based on family perspective. This study will strive to make certain contribution to the high-quality development of China’s metropolitan regions in both theory and practice.

随着近年推进经济结构性调整与区域高质量发展，中国大都市圈从极化发展向城镇协调发展转变，中心城市有序向周边城镇疏解人口与产业。特别地，在家庭团聚与安居的人口城镇化诉求驱动下，出现大量中心城市家庭迁居邻接城镇的新现象，大都市圈中的新城镇类型与新城镇化现象已显现。基于此，本研究将大都市圈中依托邻接中心城市发展、吸引中心城市家庭迁居但空间边界影响明显的城镇定义为“临界发展型城镇”，并以上海和南京都市圈的典型城镇为案例进行实证研究。主要研究内容为：①综合运用定量与定性方法，科学界定“临界发展型城镇”，并系统研究家庭迁居“临界发展型城镇”的现象及机制；②采用计量分析技术，分析迁居家庭的城镇生活状态与质量，评估家庭迁入的城镇化带动效应，探索“家庭—空间”的匹配与互动规律。③研究家庭迁居影响的“临界发展型城镇”的城镇化路径与机制，探索城镇空间可持续发展的规划应对，助力中国大都市圈城镇的高质量发展。

随着区域经济结构性调整，中国大都市圈城镇协调发展紧迫性提升，中心城市有序向周边城镇疏解人口与产业，大量中心城市家庭迁居邻接城镇，大都市圈临界城镇空间开发和发展呈现新的特征和规律。本项目对南京都市圈临界地区、深圳都市圈临界等开展了基于家庭迁居视角的大都市圈“临界发展型城镇”的发展机制及规划导控研究。本项目主要对大都市圈家庭迁居与城镇化的关系、大都市圈临界城镇空间开发和面向都市圈协调发展的空间规划应对等进行了研究。研究提出，过去基于“经济理性”的移民家庭分离已经引起了许多社会问题，家庭城乡分离已经从主动选择转变为被动选择，促进移民家庭的城市团聚是可持续城镇化进程的重要目标之一。在既定的城镇化模式下，城镇化发展进程存在流动人口家庭“团聚-离散”的平衡点，改进城镇化模式、提升城镇化的经济社会效益将有助于家庭团聚。都市圈是主要人口流入地，中心城市向临界城镇人口迁居的现象已越发显著，临界城镇将成为新时期人口城镇化的重要空间载体。空间边界可能成为阻碍区域一体化的限制性因素，形成以地方利益为主的“次优”发展结构。都市圈不同形式的跨界合作，有助于打破边缘地区发展路径限定的困境，疏解中心城市内部的压力，实现区域效益的最大化。在家庭迁居的影响下，要从区域层面统筹规划配置“都市圈—城镇—社区”多尺度居住空间资源，优化城市区域空间结构，注重居住空间供给的社会效益。本项目形成了一系列研究成果，代表性学术论文13篇（项目主持人为第一作者或通讯作者），包括在城乡规划学科一级学报《城市规划》学术论文3篇，SSCI/SCI代表性学术论文4篇等。本项目的开展对家庭迁居影响的大都市圈协调可持续发展、人口城镇化的空间引导、边缘地区空间规划编制等均具有一定的学术参考价值。