政策协调性对排污交易主体行为及政策绩效影响研究

Emission trading is considered to be an important market based instrument for pollution reduction. The previous National Science Foundation analyzed the impact of policy design on the performance of emission trading market based on bottom-up analysis framework. Accordingly, there are 15 papers have been accepted or published, including 10 papers are involved in SCI/SSCI. In addition 7 papers are involved in the top region of Scientific Journal Ranking (SJR). We also have applied 3 software copyright and published one book. Furthermore, the research found that the emission trading policy in China faces multiple institutional restraints which are caused by policy coordination between emission trading and other existed environmental policies. Such policy coordination will have significant impact on the performance of emission trading market. Thus, this research will examine the impact of policy coordination on the feasibility and performance of emission trading policy. The research will systematically summarize China’s environmental regulatory system and identify which policies will impact on emission trading market and how. The behavioral rules and decision-making mechanism of enterprises in the emission trading market with multiple institutional restraints will be investigated. In addition, an agent-based emission trading market model of sulfur dioxide will be developed. The policy coordination between emission trading and other existed environmental policy, such as total pollution control, “green” electricity price et al., will be examined, as well as the policy performance of emission trading. Finally, suggestion to improve the feasibility of emission trading policy and policy coordination will be outlined.

排污交易是支撑污染物总量减排的重要环境经济政策。已开展的青年基金项目分析了不同政策设计下排污交易市场运行机制和政策绩效。目前已经接收和发表论文15篇（SCI/SSCI论文10篇），其中SJR一区论文7篇，申请软件著作权3项，出版编著1本。同时，研究发现，排污交易与总量控制、脱硫电价等现有环境管理政策之间的不协调性可能会对我国排污交易制度有显著影响。因此，拟开展的研究将分析排污交易政策与我国现有环境管理政策体系的协调性及其对排污交易政策绩效的影响。研究将系统梳理我国现有环境管理体系，分析现有环境管理政策对排污交易市场中企业主体的决策机制影响，建立多重环境政策规制下的企业排污交易决策模型。在此基础上以电力行业二氧化硫排污交易为研究对象，构建基于主体行为的排污交易市场仿真模型，分析总量减排、脱硫电价等政策与排污交易政策的协调性及其对电力行业排污交易政策的影响，提出我国排污交易政策协调优化建议。

本项目系统梳理了我国现有环境管理体系，分析了现有环境管理政策对排污交易市场中企业主体的决策机制影响，建立了多重环境政策规制下的企业排污交易决策模型。在此基础上以电力行业二氧化硫排污交易为研究对象，构建基于主体行为的排污交易市场仿真模型，分析政策不确定性、总量减排、煤炭价格等政策与排污交易政策的协调性及其对排污交易市场的影响。研究发现政策不确定、其他的环境管理政策会影响排污交易政策的配额价格、技术选择和市场绩效。因此，在排污交易政策的是必须考虑政策间的协调。截止2016年年底，项目负责人及其团队围绕该目标开展了大量研究，基本按照计划完成了当初的研究设计，共计发表SCI/SSCI论文10篇。.