新常态下非线性财政货币政策的产业效应研究

How to promote industrial restructuring and upgrading is China’s current hot issue. As the current mainstream macroeconomic framework for policy analysis, existing DSGE models often neglect the nonlinear characteristics of fiscal and monetary policy as well as the input-output relationship between industries, and are rarely used to analyze the industry effects of economic policies. Therefore, this project plans to summarize the external shocks facing by China under the new economic normal, and then develops a multi-industry DSGE model with characteristics of China’s non-linear macro-economy policies and input-output structure. Firstly, we use the model to analyze the transmission mechanism and the impacts of external shocks on China’s macro-economy and industrial economy. Secondly, we introduce the nonlinear characteristic of fiscal policy under different economic situations to the DSGE model, which reflects the government’s purpose to achieve a balance of economic growth and structural adjustment. Then we use the model to simulate different industry effects of fiscal policy under different shocks. Thirdly, we simulate different industry effects of monetary policy constrained at the zero lower bound under different shocks. Fourthly, we simulate and evaluate the effects (welfare effects included) of different fiscal policies and monetary policies and the policy mix. The project will take the lead to use a nonlinear multi-industry DSGE model to analyze the industry effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy. Therefore it broadens of the existing research and provides theoretical support for policy makers.

如何推动产业转型升级是当前中国面临的现实热点问题。作为当前宏观经济政策分析的主流框架，既有DSGE模型的研究通常忽略了财政货币政策的非线性特征以及产业间的投入产出关系，且极少用于分析经济政策的产业效应问题。基于此，本项目从归纳经济新常态下中国面临的主要外部冲击入手，引入非线性的财政货币政策特征，建立能够刻画中国投入产出结构的多产业DSGE模型，1）分析新常态下外部冲击对中国宏观经济、产业经济的传导机制及影响程度；2）引入财政政策为了实现稳增长与调结构的平衡，在不同经济形势下具有结构性变化的非线性特点，模拟不同冲击下财政政策的产业效应；3）模拟不同冲击下零利率下限约束的货币政策的产业效应；4）模拟和评价应对不同外部冲击下的各类财政、货币政策及政策搭配的效果和福利影响。本项目率先运用非线性的多产业DSGE模型分析财政货币政策的产业效应问题，拓宽了现有的研究视角，为政府的政策制定提供了理论支持。

既有关于中国财政货币政策的产业效应的分析主要是从定性或是经验角度展开分析，具有微观基础的数理模型的研究相对不足，并且相关理论研究通常忽略了财政货币政策的非线性特征以及产业间的投入产出关系。基于此，本项目结合中国经济新常态和产业间的投入产出联系的现实特点，对财政、货币政策的产业效应进行了理论和实证分析。（1）本项目运用GVAR模型，实证检验了货币政策对不同行业的差异性影响，发现投入产出结构在货币政策传导中发挥着重要影响。（2）本项目构建并估计了具有投入产出结构的多行业DSGE模型，发现多行业模型较好地保留了传统单行业模型中的总量性质，同时又可以分析行业经济波动，特别是行业异质性和投入产出结构的影响，可以更好地分析中国宏观和行业经济波动，并作为相关政策实验的参考。（3）本项目构建并估计了具有“非线性”特征的财政政策DSGE模型，发现强刺激财政政策能够实现保增长，但挤出了私人部门投资，并导致需求结构中消费的占比下降、产业结构中工业的占比上升。未来最优财政政策应当从以“增支”为主转向以“减税”为主。