鄱阳湖生态经济区资源、环境与社会经济发展的动态协调性跟踪评价研究

The development of Poyang lake ecological economic zone has been becoming the national development strategy in 2009. It means that the Poyang lake ecological development has played important role in the middle of china, also even in the development of the whole country. Keeping the resources, environment and the socioeconomic development coordinate is the core content of the Poyang lake ecological construction. So, what is the coordination? When coordination? How to coordinate? These problems are the resources, environment and social economic development tracking evaluation of the dynamic coordination needs to solve, it is a thermometer and a barometer in the process of the ecological construction of Poyang lake. First, in this project, we define the basic content of coordination from many angle of views(system, speed and state), structure coordination evaluation index system, establish ecological indicators database of the Poyang lake 38 counties (cities, areas); Second, from the perspective of systematic coupling and so on, we structure coordination evaluation methods to evaluate the developing coordination of the Poyang lake regions since 2000, combined with the EKC analysis, explore the coordination development path; Finally, through the establishment of the system dynamics model, we simulate the effect of the different resources stock level and environment policies, and give the future development of the ecological coordination warning analysis. Based on the calculation experimental model and method, we established the multi-objective programming model to give the 2015-2020 years of ecological development planning of Poyang lake, with making it along the stable of coordination development path.

鄱阳湖生态经济区建设在2009年已上升为国家发展战略，这标志着其生态化发展在中部，乃至全国都具有举足轻重的地位，而保持资源、环境与社会经济的协调发展就是生态化建设的核心内容。那么何谓协调？何时协调？怎样才能协调？这正是资源、环境与社会经济发展动态协调性跟踪评价中需要解决的问题，它是生态化建设过程中的一竿温度计和一张晴雨表。本课题首先从多个角度（系统、速度和状态）界定协调性的基本内容，构造协调性评价指标体系，建立鄱阳湖生态区38县（市、区）的指标数据库；其次，从系统耦合等角度构造协调性评价方法对生态区自2000年以来的发展进行协调性评价，结合EKC分析，探索协调性发展路径；最后，通过建立生态区的系统动力学模型，对不同资源存量水平和环境政策进行模拟，对生态区未来发展进行协调性预警分析，通过建立基于计算实验的多目标规划模型，对生态区2015-2020年的发展进行规划，使其沿着稳定协调的路径发展

本项目在界定资源系统、环境系统与社会经济系统协调发展概念的基础上，研究了三大系统协调发展的机理，三大系统相互制约、相互合作、相互补充，共同构成了鄱阳湖的生态共生系统，从而达到资源结构合理、资源丰度合适、资源再生能力强；环境污染少、环境自净能力强、承载能力强；经济快速发展、经济结构合理、经济效益高。提出了鄱阳湖生态经济区资源、环境与社会经济协调发展的评价指标体系和评价方法，指标体系共分三大类包含57个指标，通过收集指标相关数据，建立了鄱阳湖生态区2000-2015年的资源、环境与社会经济发展数据库；然后对鄱阳湖生态区38个县市的系统协调性、速度协调性和状态协调性进行了动态评价，评价结果显示，无论是系统协调、速度协调，还是状态协调，资源系统与经济系统的协调性都要低于环境系统与经济系统的协调性。最后，根据鄱阳湖生态区发展规划，建立了鄱阳湖生态区资源、环境与社会经济协调发展的多目标规划模型，通过模型求解，给出了达到近期（2015）和远期（2020）目标的发展方案，即社会固定资产投入、劳动力投入、教育水平、科技水平、人口总量、有效耕地面积、消费水平、环保投入等应该达到的量。这些研究结果可为鄱阳湖生态经济未来5年发展提供指导性建议。.本项目研究共发表论文26篇，获得奖励1项，出版专著1部，完成省级相关项目2项，省领导批示报告6篇。