北部湾海陆过渡带生态环境演化机理及其情景模拟研究

The open development of Beibu Gulf Zone of Guangxi has already been included in China's national development strategies. With the increasing impact of climate change and human activities, the ecological environment of the sea-land transitional zone in the Beibu Gulf is facing increasingly intense stress. It is imperative for us to take specific scientific measures to protect the ecological environment in this zone. While, the reflection of typical sea outflow river basin-estuary coast-offshore sea area integrated ecological environment evolution and mechanism has become an important scientific challenge that shall be solved as soon as possible. Based on the classification of the evolution theoretical core and method integration of ecological environment of sea-land transitional zone, this project take six rivers entering the sea and shorelines in Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone as the central research target, By applied technologies like remote sensing, biomarkers, field monitoring and isotope testing, we want to obtain sedimentation records, historical data and field investigation data of inversion ecological environment evolutions like sedimentary argillite, mangrove and land desertification; reconstruct the evolution process and space-time pattern of the ecological environment of sea-land transitional zone in Beibu Gulf; and acquire high-resolution and long-term ecological environment evolution records and rules; construct the evolution mechanism and trend simulation model of ecological environment in sea-land transitional zone in Beibu Gulf and quantitatively distinguish the influence of climatic changes and human activities on the evolution of ecological environment of sea-land transitional zone in Beibu Gulf; simulate the future evolution trend of the ecological environment in Beibu Gulf Zone of Guangxi based on ecological civilization sight, and thus accumulating the scientific evidence and basic data for optimize the regulatory measures of human activities in response to changes in ecological environment.

北部湾区域开放开发已纳入国家发展战略。随着气候变化和人类活动影响日益加剧，北部湾海陆过渡带生态环境面临的压力日益加重，急需科学制定生态环境保护策略，揭示北部湾典型入海流域-河口海岸-近岸海域一体化生态环境演化机理就成为急需解决的重要科学难题。本课题在梳理海陆过渡带生态环境演化理论核心和方法集成的基础上，以广西北部湾经济区六条入海河流和岸线为核心研究靶区，运用遥感、生物标志物、定位监测、同位素测试等技术获得沉积泥质、红树林和土地沙化等反演生态环境演化的沉积记录、历史资料与现场调查资料，获得生态环境演化多源异构信息记录，重建北部湾海陆过渡带生态环境演化过程和时空格局；构建海陆过渡带生态环境演化机理与趋势模拟模型，定量区分气候变化和人类活动对北部湾海陆过渡带生态环境演化的影响；情景模拟基于生态文明视域的未来广西北部湾生态环境演化趋势，为应对生态环境变化而优化调控人类活动积累科学依据和基础数据。

北部湾背靠大西南、面向东南亚、东临粤港澳，地理位置优越，拥有丰富的海洋、矿产、旅游、淡水、农林等资源，北部湾区域开放开发已纳入国家发展战略。随着气候变化和人类活动影响日益加剧，北部湾海陆过渡带生态环境面临的压力日益加重，急需科学制定生态环境保护策略，揭示北部湾典型入海流域-河口海岸-近岸海域一体化生态环境变化及驱动机制就成为急需解决的重要科学难题。.围绕海岸带过程分析与陆海统筹发展模拟主题，以“地质-生态环境演化特征与规律—驱动因子分析与量化机制—环境演化趋势模拟—基于生态文明视域的人类活动优化调控”为主线开展研究，采用海岸带“数据—模型—平台—服务”一体化集成技术，形成了以数据采样-高精建模-格网分析-精度评价为主线的北部湾区域定量分析与系统模拟理论方法。.根据现场调查和历史资料分析，确定受自然和人为因素比较典型的入海流域、河口海岸、近岸海域等以南流江和钦江等典型入海河流口-岸线湾采样点和研究区，运用3S、磁化率、同位素分析等采样和测试分析方法，重建北部湾海陆过渡带近100年生态环境演化过程和时空格局。.筛选沉积物、岸线、沙化、红树林等特征指标及其气候变化、土地利用和围海造地等驱动指标，利用生态模型对北部湾海岸带生态环境演化机制进行量化、对已有模型进行改进以提高其预测北部湾海岸带生态环境演化的可靠性，定性与定量相结合地评估气候变化与土地利用方式变化和围海造地等人类活动对北部湾海陆过渡带不同区域的影响。.选用改进后的生态模型（ROMS +CoSiNE）作为基础模型，建立海陆过渡带生态环境演化趋势的模拟模型，采用多种IPCC气候模型预测情景下给出近期及未来100年海陆过渡带生态环境趋势预测，预测北部湾海陆过渡带生态环境脆弱性与生态环境退化程度。.基于海洋生态文明视域，根据海陆过渡带趋势模拟模型，模拟北部湾海陆过渡带在不同受控情景下生态环境变化状况，借此趋势情景模拟结果调控人类活动、完善政策措施以及促进广西北部湾海陆过渡带生态环境优化，为应对气侯变化的海岸带生态环境变化而优化调控人类活动积累科学依据和基础数据。