全面二孩政策对女性就业的影响：计量证据、理论建模与对策模拟

In recent years, China's family plan policy has been relaxed step by step, experiencing from the stage “couples both are only children can have two kids”around early 1990s, “couples with one is an only child can have two” in 2013, to the latest “two-children policy” in 2015. The change in family plan policy can have a substantial impact on female workers in terms of the employment opportunity, wage rate and promotion path. These effects may not only come from the channel of birth penalty, but also from ex ante statistical discrimination from the firms, since the firms’ expectation on total number of kids the female workers could have is altered by the adjustment of family plan policy. Our project is going to exploit the policy changes of “couples with one is an only child can have two” and “two-children policy”, using China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), China Labor-force Dynamic Surveys and administrative data from an university to identify the impact on female labor market performance with difference-in-difference and instrument variable strategies. Furthermore, we try to build a dynamic life-cycle model in which the females make labor supply decision and fertility choice simultaneously. The model can be either estimated or calibrated by China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) and other data. By doing so, we can simulate alternative policy experiments, including narrowing the gender gap in mandatory retirement age, introducing paternity leave, and subsidizing births to firms or families , to see which one is most efficient in reducing the disadvantage of female in labor market and increasing fertility.

近年来，中国的生育政策逐步放松，经历了从“双独二孩”、“单独二孩”到全面放开二孩的演变。人口政策的调整，可能会对处于生育年龄的女性劳动者在就业机会、工资水平、晋升路径上造成影响。这样的影响即可能来自于女性未来生育可能性增大引发的统计性歧视，也可能来自于女性由于生育行为职业中断或工作努力降低而遭受的“生育惩罚”。本课题计划利用中国家庭动态调查、中国劳动力动态调查和某高校的毕业生就业数据，在双重差分和工具变量等实证策略下考察计生政策变化对女性劳动力市场参与、职业选择和工资的影响。更进一步地，我们将构建女性生育和劳动供给的生命周期模型和工资决定模型，并利用中国营养与健康调查等微观数据对模型进行估计或校准。最后，利用估计（校准）后的模型研究缩小男女退休差异、男性陪产假和生育补贴等政策对降低女性劳动力市场劣势、提高生育率的作用，给出合理的政策建议。

中国正在逐步走入老龄化社会。为了应对人口的老龄化，生育政策近年来逐步放松，经历了从“双独二孩”、“单独二孩”到全面放开二孩的演变。在人口政策调整的同时，中国劳动力市场上仍然存在着显著的性别差异，并且这一差异有逐步扩大的趋势。生育政策的调整是否会进一步加剧女性在劳动力市场的弱势地位成为公众和政策制定者共同关注的问题。本研究从从家庭决策、组织内部竞争和劳动力市场歧视等多重视角理解生育制度对女性劳动力市场表现的作用机制，进而理解中国劳动力市场上的性别差异，并提出应对策略。通过构建中国家庭决策模型，并利用中国家庭动态调查和中国劳动力动态调查等数据对理论预测进行检验，我们发现传统的统一模型已经不适合解释现代中国家庭的决策过程，作为核心决策者，夫妻双方就生育、住房选择等问题存在着广泛的偏好冲突，想要理解生育政策的后果，不能忽视家庭内部成员的谈判能力。通过对某大型医疗机构的内部人事数据的探索，我们发现男女医生存在着晋升差异。并且，这一差异在医学院的专业选择环节就已经存在，女学生更多地选择低收入的非临床专业和内科专业，这一选择差异与学业表现无关。该研究有助于理解中国高技能、高学历专业领域性别不平等的形成和 “高教育低生育”问题。通过构建生命周期模型并进行校准和政策模拟，我们发现生育政策在搭配不同的女性延迟退休政策时会产生很强的异质性效果。这一结论具有很强的政策含义——提示我们不仅要调整生育政策，更要注重生育政策和其他劳动力市场制度的搭配，才能在缩小劳动力市场性别差距的同时提振生育率。