南方稻区农户适应季节性干旱行为选择、绩效评价与防灾策略研究—以江西为例

In recent years, the serious impact of natural disaster on food production has caused a high degree of social concern. As the major rice producing areas in China, southern seasonal drought worsens increasingly. It has great harm to food security and farmers' income in China. Taking the major rice producing areas -JiangXi Province as an example and based on the survey data of farmers, on the basis of probing into the impact of seasonal drought of southern rice areas on rice production by using qualitative and quantitative methods. Firstly, this projest analyze farmers' adapative behavior choices to seasonal drought and its decision-making mechanism and influence factors by using farmers' economic theory model ,Heckman Probit model and MNL model. Then,the projest study implement performance of farmers' adaptive behavior to seasonal drought by using instrumental variable method and ordered logit model. In this way we can make a scientific judgment to the necessity of adaptive behavior measures and to the implement effect of specific adaptive behavior. Finally, the project inquire into farmers' demand priority for measures of government prevention drought measures by using cluster analysis, and propose the strategy of prevention disaster in southern rice areas on the level of farmers and government respectively. The project is of great significance to guide farmers to actively take strategies of adaption seasonal drought scientifically, and optimize supply order of prevention drought measures for government and so as to improve the efficiency of prevention disaster.

近年来，自然灾害给粮食生产带来的影响引起了社会的高度关注。南方作为水稻主产区，其季节性干旱问题日趋严重，已极大地危害到我国粮食安全和农民增收。本项目以水稻主产区江西为例，运用定性与定量相结合的方法，利用农户调查数据，在探讨南方稻区季节性干旱对水稻产量影响的基础上，首先，分析农户适应季节性干旱的行为选择，并利用农户理论模型、Heckman Probit和MNL模型，从理论与实证上考察农户适应季节性干旱行为的决策机理及其影响因素；然后，利用工具变量法和有序Logit模型定量考察农户适应季节性干旱行为的实施绩效，进而对适应行为实施的必要性及各项具体适应行为的实施效果做出科学判断；最后，利用聚类方法探讨农户对政府防旱措施需求的优先序，并基于农户和政府层面提出南方稻区季节性干旱的防灾策略。本项目对于积极引导农户合理采取适应季节性干旱行为策略，促进政府优化防灾政策供给优先序、提高防灾效率具有重要意义。

南方稻区为确保国家粮食安全发挥了重要作用，但面临季节性干旱问题。因此，研究南方稻区季节性干旱农户适应行为选择、评价适应措施的减灾效果、提出防灾措施对保障我国粮食安全、提高农民收入具有重要的现实意义。. 本项目以南方稻区江西为例，在探讨南方稻区季节性干旱对水稻产量影响的基础上，首先，分析农户适应季节性干旱的行为选择，并利用农户理论模型和MNL模型，从理论与实证上考察农户适应季节性干旱行为的决策机理及其影响因素；然后，利用工具变量法定量考察农户适应季节性干旱行为的实施绩效，进而对适应行为实施的必要性及各项具体适应行为的实施效果做出科学判断；最后，利用聚类方法探讨农户对政府防旱措施需求的优先序，并基于农户和政府层面提出南方稻区季节性干旱的防灾策略。. 项目取得了系列重要结果：（1）农户适应行为及其影响因素结果表明：68.6%的农户会采取相应的适应行为，并且补种（苗）、改种其他作物、调整播种和收获日期是农户最优先考虑采用的适应措施，而资金和劳力是农户采取适应行为措施最主要的限制因素。社区资本、干旱发生频率、防灾信息的可获性等因素对农户适应行为采用意愿、规模和强度有正向影响。（2）农户适应措施防灾效果分析结果表明：更换品种对水稻产量的影响最大，其次是参加用水协会，效果最小的是调整排灌强度或灌溉时间、补种苗。（3）农户适应措施选择优先序表明：工程类措施中排在第一位的是“建修水窖、池塘和井”，非工程类措施中排在第一位的是“改种其他作物”。（4）关于季节性干旱应对策略，政府层面，应大力加强农田水利基础设施建设，积极鼓励优化能源使用结构，合理规划土地利用，完善气象预测系统建设，提高灾害应急反应能力；农户层面，应积极调整耕作制度、采用新品种、增加抗灾投入并积极加入各类农业合作组织。. 本项目对于积极引导农户合理采取适应季节性干旱行为策略，促进政府优化防灾政策供给优先序、提高防灾效率具有重要意义。