基于保护行为决策模型的海冰灾害公共预报预警系统效用机理识别及优化研究

Bohai and northern Huanghai sea is the only mid-latitude area that suffers from significant sea-ice hazard. With the rapid growth of the marine fishery and mariculture industry in this region over the recent years, small business and persons who work in this field have become the main body affected by sea-ice hazard, resulting in economic losses and human injuries and death to various extent almost every year. UNISDR has pointed out that the key to contemporary disaster risk reduction is to elevate the risk perception of community members, and increase the involvement in disaster risk reduction at household level. To achieve this goal, a critical measure is to build effective public forecast and warning systems. This project aims to explore and improve the effectiveness of current public forecast and warning system for sea-ice hazard in China by adopting a user-centered approach. Built upon the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) in the field of risk communication, this research employs a series of mixed quantitative and qualitative methods to investigate the mechanism and result of the current sea-ice public forecast and warning system in promoting users’ protective action decisions, examine the effect of user characteristics on people’s response to public forecast and warnings, identify the difference in users’ information needs, establish taxonomy for public bodies affected by sea-ice hazard, and design customised public forecast and warning information for each user group. This study will eventually build an optimized sea-ice public forecast and warning system that can promote different users’ psychological processing of the message and active decision of protective actions. It will also provide empirical evidence and decision support for building an all-round public disaster risk reduction strategy for the sea-ice hazard in China. Furthermore, it will help enrich and extend the paradigm for studying the effectiveness of public warning systems for other types of hazard in China.

我国渤海和黄海北部是海冰灾害最严重的中纬度地区。随着近年来该区域海洋渔业的快速发展，从事海洋捕捞和海水养殖的普通从业者成为海冰灾害的主要承灾体，每年都因海冰灾害遭受不同程度的经济损失和人员伤亡。国际减灾战略指出，当代灾害风险治理的关键在于提高公民风险认知、增强社区减灾参与度，而实现这一目标的关键是建立有效的灾害公共预报预警系统。本项目基于以用户为导向的研究理念，以风险沟通领域的用户保护行为决策模型（PADM）为理论框架，使用定性与定量相结合的实证方法，探索现有海冰灾害公共预报预警系统对激发用户减备灾行为的作用机理及效果，挖掘用户信息需求差异，建立公众海冰承灾体分类体系，为各类用户设计定制化海冰灾害预报预警信息。研究将建立可以从心理学层面真正促进海冰公众承灾体减备灾行为决策的有效公共预报预警系统，为全面的海冰灾害公共风险治理提供实证资料和决策支持，拓展我国灾害公共预报预警有效性的研究范式。

本研究基于联合国国际减灾战略提出的以公众响应为导向的有效公共预警思想，聚焦于莱州湾独特的海冰灾害，面向受灾严重的渔业生产企业，基于受灾机制与应灾措施的差异，构建了渔业承灾体分类体系，并采用一系列实证调查和实验方法，从发布机制、传播体系、信息内容和表达方式四个维度，针对四类不同的渔业生产类型，探索了海冰预报系统的效用机制和有效设计。研究发现：① 海冰年预报对四类渔业生产企业提早认知当年冰情、恰当决策生产均至关重要，盛冰期之前的中短期预报也可进一步提供验证和参考信息；② 需以当地政府组织的渔业微信群为主要平台，建立规范、协调、统一的海冰预报官方传播体系和流程，实现海冰预报在“最后一公里”的实时传播；③ 应添加公众易理解的“暖冬”、“冷冬”和“正常年”等冰情定义，并使用简明扼要的文字，罗列地区相关的初冰日、盛冰期和冬季平均气温较常年预测等关键信息要素；④ 还应结合表格的形式，提供全海区冰情数据，辅以地图直观展示全海区的最大浮冰外缘线和冰厚预测，协助生产者快速、直观地阅读和认知当年冰情。研究为建立有效的海冰预报系统提供了科学指导和具体建议，并为在其他灾害领域开展有效公共预警研究提供了理论框架和实践方法。