京津冀城市群能源代谢时空特征及优化调控研究

China has been placing great emphasis on the integrated and coordinated development of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration. However, the effect of large quantities of “resources and energy consumption” and “waste emission” is increasingly serious. With this circumstance, it is required to conduct research on spatial and temporal dynamics analysis on energy metabolism of the urban agglomeration system, and optimize metabolic processes from the perspective of the system’s internal characteristics. Based on the theory of “urban metabolism”, this research aims to trace the energy metabolic processes under two scales, industrial sectors and cities (or province). With the data of multi-regional input-output tables and final energy consumption, system ecology and ecological network analysis methods are integrated to establish an ecological network model including the two scales. With as basis, the direct and indirect energy flows among actors in the network model are accounted. Analyzing the overall characteristics of the network and the functional attributes of the actors need to choose indicators from ascendency and network environ analysis. Finally, based on index decomposition analysis to quantify the factors which influence energy metabolism of the Jing-Jin-Ji urban agglomeration, different scenarios are used to compare the several designing plans and support decision making for regional energy saving.

京津冀城市群协同发展受到国家高度重视，然而其所呈现的“资源集聚”和“污染累加”效应日益严重。为了缓解京津冀地区高能耗、高排放问题，亟需开展城市群能源代谢过程时空特征研究，并基于内在作用机理开展优化调控分析。本课题拟在城市代谢理论基础上，解析城市群微观产业部门至中观省市尺度能源代谢过程。基于区域间投入产出表和终端能耗数据，集成系统生态学和生态网络分析（流量分析）方法，构建涵盖多尺度的生态网络模型并核算网络中代谢主体间由于直接、间接过程引起的能流量。结合生态网络分析中上升性和环境元分析进一步揭示网络整体和节点功能关系特征。最终运用因素分解分析在量化城市群能源代谢过程影响因素基础上，依据情景分析追踪不同约束条件下代谢主体及代谢流变化规律，为城市群未来节能发展提出科学建议。

城市群已然成为国家经济发展格局中最具活力和潜力的核心地区，然而其呈现的产业结构趋同、协同效应较低、生态承载能力有限等问题严重制约城市群高质量发展。本项目基于城市代谢理论，以京津冀城市群为例从“网络”视角集成微观（产业部门）尺度及中观（省市）尺度，整合系统生态学理论、生态网络分析及情景分析方法，建立一套评估多尺度能源代谢过程解析-模拟评价-优化调控的城市群能源代谢时空变化模拟与调控方法体系。具体而言，首先，解析城市群能源代谢过程，识别参与城市群运转的城市/省及产业部门间能源输入、转化及输出过程，描绘城市群能源代谢时空特征；其次，采用生态网络分析方法构建各尺度能源代谢网络模型，集成环境元分析及上升性分析方法探究网络外在整体特征及内在作用机制；最终，基于情景分析法为能源系统未来优化、可持续发展提出有效设计方案。研究过程中分别以京津冀城市群中北京、天津、唐山等典型城市为例，并重点对各尺度系统内在结构和功能关系开展创新性研究，旨在阐明城市群能源代谢系统内在作用机理，提出适宜城市群节能减碳发展方案。本项目执行期间项目主持人以第一作者或通讯作者在Journal of Cleaner Production, Ecological Indicators和Ecological Modelling等期刊发表SCI收录论文3篇，培养11名本科生完成本科毕业论文。