生态移民无土安置风险防范研究——以宁夏为例

The farmlandless relocation of ecological migrants is the new type population migration mode. In 2011, the provincial government of Ningxia adopted it as a pilot work to solve the poverty. Hui people make up the main body of the migration population. The farmlandless relocation pilot work is a very important measure to deal with the livelihood of the poor population who are in the face of the lack of farmland resources and improve their life quality.In the fact,it is a jumping process aboout citizan.so,it is very important and urgent that makerisk prevention on farmlandless relocation. The production mode of migrants undertakes a tremendous change due to the farmlandless relocation: Life cost increases dramatically, the reconstruction of the social relations is complicated and the social security is not available. Thus the contradictions between migrants, governments and enterprises become serious. The current situation is very complex. As a result, the farmlandless relocation work is getting difficult. In the farmlandless relocation area, migrants have a low education level and poor productivity. The enterprises are largely situated at the end of the industry chain. The competitiveness is weak. "Three Wastes" can't be solved. All of these issues increase the risk of the relocation work. The project combines the field work, measuring economics and empirical research to deal with the issues so that the approaches of the farmlandless relocation work can be identified and the contradictions and focus issues existing in the farmlandless relocation can be clarified，a dynamic monitoring and evaluative index system for the farmlandless relocation risk prevention will be set up through the research. An risk prevention of the farmlandless relocation will be constructed by means of theoretical research and practical exploration, which can be drawn upon by the local governments to carry out the farmlandless relocation work.

生态移民无土安置是国家2011年在宁夏试点的，以回族群众为迁移主体的新型人口迁移方式。该方式对于国家今后在可利用土地资源紧缺局面下，解决乡村贫困问题，提高贫困人口的生活质量至关重要，其本质上是跳跃式城镇化过程。因此，进行无土安置风险防范研究意义重大，且有一定的紧迫性。无土安置后移民生计方式转变巨大，生活成本陡增，社会关系重建复杂，社会保障不到位，使得移民、政府、企业之间问题多，矛盾大，增加了无土安置难度。安置区移民整体文化程度低、劳动素养差，企业竞争力差，工业"三废"难消解等问题的存在，增加了无土安置风险。本项目采用田野作业、问卷调查、计量经济相结合的方法，对无土安置的安置途径、存在问题、潜在风险进行了理论研究和实证分析，建立风险动态监测与评价指标体系，并制定无土安置风险防范对策。本课题拓展了人口迁移的研究领域，丰富了人口迁移的安置理论和研究方法，研究成果可供地方政府在无土安置实践中借鉴。

生态移民无土安置风险防范研究.刘学武.生态移民无土安置是指迁入地不再为移民安排耕地，而是直接将移民安置到城镇居住，安排到企业务工，旨在使移民依靠务工所得满足家庭生活需要，实现脱贫致富。该安置方式是“跳跃”式城镇化，是扶贫开发实践中的一种创新，但也存在一定程度的风险。课题组从4个方面进行了深入研究：.一是依据灰色定权聚类的数理特性，在生态移民无土安置区适宜性评估中建构灰色定权聚类模型，进行安置区－资源、环境，安置区－移民两个层面的适宜性评估，完善地解决多安置区、多评估指标、多评估等级交织在一起的评估问题。评估结果表明两个层面上的适宜性评估结果会呈现多种关联情况，当某地区资源、环境适宜建设安置区时，安置区既可能适宜，也可能较适宜于移民的可持续发展；当资源、环境较适宜建设安置区时，安置区即可能完全适宜，也可能仅是较适宜于移民的可持续发展；当资源、环境较不适宜建设安置区时，安置区同样较不适宜于移民的可持续发展。.二是依据AHP分析法的数理特性，在生态移民无土安置区风险评估中建构AHP模型，在定性评价的基础上进行定量评估， 得出了安置区风险因子的风险程度、风险次序由高到低依次是主产业发展不可持续、社会保障缺失、管理失范、产业升级能力不足、文化冲突、移民被边缘化、空气污染、水体污染、经济结构失衡、迁移成本过高、原材料供给、土地资源供给、水资源供给、次生灾害、原有灾害、能源供给。.三是依据上述评估结果，再结合各无土安置区资源、环境、经济、社会实际状况，架构了无土安置区风险监测指标体系，并确定了风险监测指标及观测值阈值表，便于生态移民建设与管理部门及时探查、消解无土安置区潜在风险。.四是根据适宜性评估、风险评估结果，分析生态移民无土安置区存在问题：主导产业发展不可持续的综合性强，其中有经济和社会人文原因，也有资源和生态环境原因；社会保障缺失主要属于制度安排方面的原因；管理缺失主要属于旧的行政管理惯性在其作用；而产业升级能力不足外在于技术进步问题，深层次受到资源和环境的约束，原有产业基础和产业结构的困扰，产业市场化程度的局限，以及科技创新能力的瓶颈性制约。这就决定了在构建生态移民无土安置方式的风险防范对策时，依然要从经济、社会、资源、环境四个方面入手，必须建立起一个相对完善、有重要实用价值和可操作性的对策体系。