地方公共服务均等化的资本化效应和福利再分配研究——以基础教育为例

The equalization of basic public services is an important task that our government vigorously promotes in recent years. Most of the areas such as education and medical care that are of major concern belong to the category of local public services. Domestic and foreign studies have found that the spatial differences in the quality of local public service provision can be reflected in housing prices, a phenomenon known as the capitalization effect of public services. Then, is there also a capitalization effect in the process of equalization of public services, that is, whether the improvement of local public services pushes up the nearby house prices or rents? The domestic literature on the capitalization effect of local public service equalization is almost blank. At the same time, the existence and extent of the capitalization effect have a direct impact on the welfare redistribution of public services. In particular, whether low-income groups can really benefit from the policy depends much on the tradeoff between the willingness to pay for public service improvement and the increase in housing prices or rents. This paper firstly conducts the empirical study of the capitalization effect of local public service equalization, taking the policy attempts of the local government in China for the equalization of basic education in recent years as an example. By using a large number of micro-data such as housing sales and leases, and quasi-experiment identification strategies such as the improved difference-in-differences (DID) method, we endeavor to overcome the potential endogeneity problem. Secondly, the paper establishes a theoretical model to explain the mechanism of the empirical results, analyze the benefit incidence of public service equalization under the capitalization effect, and demonstrate that when the capitalization effect is strong, the welfare improvement of low-income groups, especially the renters, is not obvious, and in some cases their welfare even decrease. Finally, based on the empirical results and the theoretical model, the paper puts forward policy recommendations from aspects such as alternative schemes of local public service equalization, the implementation of the “equalizing rights of renters” policy, and the “value capture” function of property tax.

基本公共服务均等化是近年来我国政府大力推进的一项工作，其中重点关注的教育、医疗等领域大多属于地方公共服务。国内外的研究发现，地方公共服务质量的空间差异会反映到房价中，这称作公共服务的资本化效应。那么，公共服务均等化是否也产生资本化效应，即是否推高了周边的房价或租金？值得注意的是，资本化效应的程度大小直接影响均等化政策的福利再分配结果。国内文献中对公共服务均等化的资本化效应和福利再分配的研究几近空白。本课题首先以基础教育为例，运用住房买卖和租赁等微观数据和改进的双重差分法等准实验识别策略，实证研究教育均等化政策的资本化效应。其次，建立理论模型分析资本化效应作用下公共服务均等化的受益归宿，论证当资本化程度较高时低收入尤其是租房人群的福利提高不明显，在一些情况下甚至可能降低。最后，基于实证和理论结果，从改善公共服务均等化方案、落实“租购同权”政策和发挥房地产税“价值捕获”功能等方面提出政策建议。

中国大力推进基本公共服务均等化，其中教育、医疗等地方公共服务受到重点关注。地方公共服务均等化是否产生显著的资本化效应，直接影响政策的福利分配结果。本课题以基础教育为例，研究均等化政策对房价和房租产生的资本化效应，开展了以下工作：（一）建立理论模型，推导公共服务均等化产生的动态资本化效应和对房租的传导作用，提出三条可供检验的假说；（二）分两轮收集微观交易数据，第一轮覆盖北京市海淀区17个学区、31个小升初派位区、97所小学划片范围内的823个居民小区，自2013年1月至2017年3月共38627笔成交记录，第二轮覆盖北京市西城区、东城区、海淀区、朝阳区和丰台区自2011年4月至2021年1月的二手房成交数据，共计38万余条；（三）运用改进版双重差分法量化资本化效应，发现均等化措施使受益小学划片内房价提高约2.8%，相当于总价上涨13万元，每平米单价上涨1600元；（四）分析和检验均等化措施的异质性和对房租的传导作用，发现教育均等化措施具有明显的异质性，其资本化效应中约有八成从房价转嫁到房租中；（五）实证分析了近年推出的“多校划片”政策，发现政策使得西城区房价平均下降约1.36%，在控制边界处不可观测的地理特征后降幅达到‒2.98%，但是优质教育资源的稀缺性在政策过渡期中得到进一步强化，并在政策实施后仍得以保持；（六）基于理论和计量分析结果，从多措并举促进教育均衡、落实“租购同权”政策和发挥房地产税“价值捕获”功能方面提出了政策建议。