机动车瞬态排放模型本地化应用研究

Vehicle emission has become one of the major sources of air pollution in China. There has to be a series of laws and policies to control air quality effectively. In the process of formulating and implementing control measures, the vehicle emission model especially the instantaneous emission model is the most important scientific tool for evaluating the effect of measures. However, the instantaneous emission model is still in the beginning stages, lacking local emission factors and the emission simulation results are not able to reflect the emission in real driving cycles. The research aims to build modified local emission factors database under the real urban traffic conditions in China by means of bench test, chassis dynameter test and on-board test based on the European emission model PHEM (Passenger Car and Heavy Duty Emission Model)..Meanwhile, the traffic flow forecasting will be carried out in order to solve the problem that dynamic traffic data are difficult to be obtained. Therefore, the research aims to couple the emission model with traffic model, with the establishment of a high spatiotemporal relationship between vehicle emission and traffic flow. Finally, the real-time dynamic vehicle emission rates will be quantitatively simulated, the precise emission inventory with high spatial and temporal resolution can be provided to regional air quality model and supported traffic management decision and policy assessment.

机动车尾气排放已成为我国城市大气污染的主要来源之一，迫切需要一系列的法规政策对机动车排放实施有效控制来改善空气质量。在这些科学决策过程中，机动车排放模型尤其是瞬态排放模型是定量评估措施实施效果的最重要的科学工具。然而机动车瞬态排放模型在我国的应用尚处于起步阶段，缺少本地化的瞬态排放因子，且模型模拟的结果难以反映我国城市真实道路工况条件下的机动车实际排放水平。本项目以欧洲PHEM瞬态排放模型为基础框架，开展排放因子本地化修正与建立研究。通过台架、整车转鼓和车载测试，整合已有数据，建立反映我国城市交通状况的机动车瞬态排放因子数据库。.同时针对道路动态交通数据难以获取的现状，开展城市道路交通流预测方法研究，建立交通与排放的高时空响应关系，实现交通模型与排放模型的耦合。最终实现基于实时动态交通数据的机动车排放水平的定量模拟，为区域空气质量模型提供高时空分辨率排放清单，支持交通管理措施和政策评估。

机动车尾气排放是我国城市大气污染的主要来源之一，机动车排放模型是定量研究城市道路机动车污染物排放量以及机动车管控措施实施环境效果的重要科学工具。针对目前缺少反映我国城市道路工况的机动车瞬态排放因子，本研究以PHEM瞬态排放模型为基础框架，开展排放因子本地化修正与建立研究，主要通过整车转鼓和车载测试，整合已有数据，建立反映我国城市交通状况的机动车瞬态排放因子数据库。选取天津市保有量和活动水平较高的典型机动车进行本地车载及转鼓排放测试，共计46辆机动车用于测试。同时开展城市道路交通流预测方法研究，建立交通与排放的高时空相应关系，最终实现基于动态交通数据的机动车排放水平的定量模拟，为区域空气质量模型提供高时空分辨率排放清单。.本项目中更新完善的机动车排放因子数据库目前已经应用于天津、郑州、青岛等地的相关机动车污染与管控评估的研究中。