基于互联网大数据的房地产公众预期研究

The public's housing price expectation has been widely considered as a key factor influencing housing market fluctuations and policy effectiveness. Thus, it’s of great significance to study the formation, measurement and impacts of the public's housing price expectation, so as to get a better understanding of the market dynamics and more effective implementation of housing policies. However, the extent literature paid much attention to the impact of public expectation, but few to its formation mechanism and measurement, which is essential for the understanding of expectation. And the development of information technology offers a new perspective and data base for the micro foundation of real estate research. This study attempts to study the formation, measurement and management of the public's housing price expectation based on big data collected from the Internet. Firstly, the concept of housing price expectation is defined and its characteristics are analyzed. Secondly, the factors influencing housing price expectation are summarized, based on which its formation mechanism is explored. According to the above mechanism and the big data over the internet, a housing price expectation index is constructed to measure the expectation. Thirdly, the impact of housing price expectation on housing market is analyzed theoretically and empirically. Finally, the relationship between public's expectation and policy effectiveness is discussed, according to which suggestions are provided for managing the public expectation including policy information issue strategies and enhancing policy credibility, etc.

公众预期是影响房地产市场波动和房地产调控政策效果的关键因素。研究公众预期的形成、测度及其对房地产市场的作用机理，有助于深入认识房地产市场的波动规律，指导政府合理管理房地产公众预期。现有研究对预期的影响有较多的探讨，但对房地产公众预期形成、测度的研究则有待提升。网络技术的发展为房地产的微观基础提供了新的研究思路与数据基础。本课题试图基于互联网大数据研究房地产公众预期的形成机理、测度、影响及其管理策略。首先，对房地产公众预期的概念进行合理界定，并对其特性进行辨析，深入剖析公众预期的形成机理。其次，基于互联网大数据构建房地产公众预期指数，从而对房地产公众预期进行科学测度。据此分析公众预期对房地产市场主体行为及市场表现的影响，进行理论分析与实证研究。最后，探索房地产公众预期与房地产调控政策有效性之间的关系，并从政策信息发布策略、提高政策可信度等方面，提出房地产公众预期的管理建议。

公众预期是影响房地产市场表现与房地产调控政策效果的重要因素。本研究试图基于互联网大数据研究房地产市场公众预期形成、测度及其管理，在合理界定房地产市场公众预期的概念内涵及其性质的基础上，厘清了大数据环境下房地产市场公众预期的形成机理及其对房地产市场的影响机理，基于多源数据对房地产市场公众预期进行了科学测度，实证检验了调控政策、媒体情绪及社会关系等因素对公众预期形成的影响，以及公众预期对房地产市场表现及调控有效性的影响，并基于政府、媒体与公众互动机制，从优化政策信息发布策略、提升政府公信力、发挥媒体舆论引导功能等角度提出了房地产市场公众预期管理策略建议。. 本研究主要创新与贡献之处体现在：（1）基于社会学、心理学、行为学等多学科交叉理论界定了大数据环境下房地产市场公众预期的概念内涵，发掘了影响房地产市场公众预期形成的关键因素及传导路径，从微观个体形成到群体聚合扩散多层次地深入剖析了公众预期形成机理，并运用结构方程模型、计量模型、复杂系统模型等多种方法进行了验证，加深了对房地产市场波动规律的理性认识。（2）创建了大数据环境下的房地产网络大数据库与大数据分析及挖掘方法，建立了基于网络大数据、政策文本数据、宏观经济数据等多源数据的房地产经济研究理论框架与计量经济模型，编制了性质优良的房地产市场公众预期指数与调控政策预期指数，实现了对房地产市场公众预期的科学测度与实时监测，为房地产大数据研究提供了基础理论框架与分析工具。. 本研究在一定程度上丰富与完善了房地产经济研究与预期研究的理论体系、方法论体系与数据基础，开拓了房地产大数据相关微观研究的新思路与新视角，有助于政府动态监测房地产市场公众预期变化，为其有效制定房地产市场调控政策、合理管理房地产市场公众预期提供了科学依据与决策工具，具有重要的理论价值与实践意义。