基于可靠性分析的认知不确定性下车地通信系统故障诊断方法

Fault tolerance has greatly improved the reliability of train-ground communication system. However, its high reliability causes the lack of sufficient fault data and epistemic uncertainty, which increasing significantly raises challenges in system diagnosis. A novel diagnosis method for train-ground communication system is proposed to improve the diagnostic efficiency in the paper, which makes full use of reliability and fuzzy set theories. Specifically, it adopts dynamic fault tree to model their dynamic fault modes and evaluates the failure rates of the basic events using expert elicitation to deal with epistemic uncertainty. Furthermore,it mines some qualitative structure and quantitative parameters information provided by reliability analysis using algebraic technique and Bayesian network and updates these reliability results according to sensors data. The qualitative information, components' posterior probabilities, criticality importance and heuristic inforation values are considered comprehensively to design a novel dynamic diagnosis strategy which can locate the fault with the objective of fast and low-cost diagnosis. The aim of this project is to provide scientific decision for the fault diagnosis of the train-ground communication system and offer a new idea for fault diagnosis in complex system.

容错技术极大地提升了车地通信系统可靠性，但同时导致故障样本少而产生的认知不确定性问题，给车地通信系统的故障诊断提出了新挑战。为提高车地通信系统诊断效率，本项目拟采用可靠性和模糊集理论，通过对车地通信系统故障特性进行分析，建立其动态故障树模型,并研究如何结合专家知识预测底事件模糊故障率算法,拟解决车地通信系统认知不确定性问题；应用代数法和贝叶斯网络对动态故障树分析，挖掘车地通信系统发生故障时潜在的定性结构信息和定量参数信息，进一步融合实时传感器信息对可靠性分析结果进行动态更新，综合考虑系统定性信息、部件后验概率、关键重要度和启发式信息函数价值等属性进行动态群决策，研究认知不确定性下以最小代价、最快速度准确定位故障、排除故障的智能决策新算法。为车地通信系统的诊断与维护提供科学决策支持，同时丰富和完善认知不确定性下复杂系统故障诊断理论与方法。

容错技术极大地提升了车地通信系统可靠性，但同时导致故障样本少而产生的认知不确定性问题，给车地通信系统的故障诊断提出了新挑战。为提高车地通信系统诊断效率，本项目拟采用可靠性和模糊集理论，通过对车地通信系统故障特性进行分析，建立其动态故障树模型,并研究如何结合专家知识预测底事件模糊故障率算法,拟解决车地通信系统认知不确定性问题；应用代数法和贝叶斯网络对动态故障树分析，挖掘车地通信系统发生故障时潜在的定性结构信息和定量参数信息，进一步融合实时传感器信息对可靠性分析结果进行动态更新，综合考虑系统定性信息、部件后验概率、关键重要度和启发式信息函数价值等属性进行动态群决策，研究认知不确定性下以最小代价、最快速度准确定位故障、排除故障的智能决策新算法，为车地通信系统的故障诊断与维护提供科学决策支持。已发表17篇期刊论文或者国际会议论文（其中SCI检索10篇，EI检索7篇），申报并获批2项相关国家和省部级科技计划项目。