境内集群式产业转移驱动的国内价值链重构与产业集群升级机理研究

As the process of factors reconfiguration, the activity of clustered industry transfer taking place inside China has created the chances to expand survial space for small and medium enterprises, to optimize the growth environment and to promote innovation activities, leading to the reconstruction of the domestic value chain and the upgrade of industry cluster. Through the summary and generalization of existing theoretical studies and practical progress, this project demonstrated the the necessity of the clustered industry transfer and the reconstruction of the domestic value chain. On the basis of cross-validation of mathematical models and econometric model, the focus is on the upgrade synergism between the two industrial clusters with the transition relation, on the drive effect of clustered industry transfer on the reconstruction of the domestic value chain, as well as on the dynamic coupling effect of the reconstructing domestic value chain and upgrading industrial clusters. Based on the above mechanism, taking the relocation of the typical industrial clusters in Yangtze River Delta as the object to make the validation study so as to build a systematic dynamics model to dynamically portray the logical relationship among "clustered transfer - reconstruction of domestic value chain - upgrade of industrial cluster ". Then the government industrial policy and enterprise development strategy are simulated and assessed. The expected results will enrich the classic theory of industrial transfer, value chain, cluster upgrades and corporate behavio, which will also provide ideas and theoretical support for promoting the regional economic co-development, the innovative transformation, cracking the low-end value chain lock of the domestic industry.

作为要素的重新配置过程，当前国内实际发生的集群式产业转移活动为中小企业生存空间的拓展、成长环境的优化和自主创新活动的推进创造了条件，导致了国内价值链的重构与产业集群的升级。本课题通过对已有理论研究和实践进展的梳理和归纳，论证了集群式产业转移和国内价值链重构的必要性；通过数理模型与计量模型的交互验证，重点研究具有迁移关系的两个产业集群间的协同升级效应，集群式产业转移对国内价值链重构的驱动效应，以及国内价值链重构与产业集群升级的动态耦合效应；在上述机理研究的基础上，以长三角地区典型产业集群的外迁为对象作验证性研究，构建系统动力学模型以动态刻画"集群式转移-国内价值链重构-产业集群升级"的逻辑关系，并对政府产业政策和企业发展战略进行模拟、评估；预期成果将丰富经典产业转移、价值链、集群升级和企业行为理论，亦为推进区域经济协同发展和创新型转型、破解国内产业的价值链低端锁定问题提供思路和理论支撑。

集群式产业转移在拓展了企业的生存空间、实现了生产要素重新配置的同时，还推动了国内价值链的重构与产业集群的升级，从根源上破解了发达国家主导的全球价值链对我国产业的低端锁定。通过本项目的研究，揭示了我国产业发展过程中所面临的衰退风险、产业转移的动力机制及主要特征，明确了境内集群式产业转移的基本内涵、特征（同一国界范围、双向社会责任、多元互动关系）和一般规律，论证了集群式产业转移的必然性、重要性及可行性，并就产业转移趋势的综合测度进行了研究；从产业链分工视角下境内集群式产业转移的现实出发，构建了产业转移驱动的区际技术创新协同机理模型，并以安徽承接长三角地区制造业为例，运用复合系统的协调度模型实证研究了2006-2013年产业链分工背景下安徽地区工艺创新系统与长三角地区产品创新系统的协同关系，长三角地区产品创新子系统和安徽地区工艺创新子系统都向有序化方向发展的，且两地之间的技术创新协同水平呈逐年递增态势；论证了全球价值链与国内价值链（简称“双链”）的包容与嵌入、合作与竞争、独立与依赖的动态耦合关系，揭示在制造业区际转移背景下“双链”耦合的演化机理与趋势，并借用投入产出数据测算了“双链”间的耦合度；基于产业转移与集群开放的前提条件下，深度分析了产业集群内知识传播的机理及各主体的行为作用、以及基于知识异质性的地方企业升级机理及路径选择等问题，不仅揭示了集群内知识资源动态累积的动力机制，而且验证了知识在本地企业升级中的重要作用；结合上述理论分析结论和实地调研总结，提出了一系列具有较强科学性和可操作性的破解全球价值链对我国产业的低端锁定、促进产业有效转移和产业集群升级的政策建议。