湖沼型血吸虫疫区农村经济空间特征与结构调控研究——以鄱阳湖区为例

Poyang Lake region is the typical serious epidemic area of Schistosoma Japonicum in marshland and lake region. Its large water level difference between flood season and dry season forms vast bottomland, which is the breeding ground of oncomelania-the host of schistosome. The rural economy of lake region is badly affected by hydrological characteristics and schistosomiasis. Through collating plenty of RS images and GIS thematic data (about vegetation, soil, hydrology, land use, towns and villages, population, industry and economy scales, etc.), with the database of infected marshland distribution in the lake region and schistosomiasis in epidemic area as well as the typical rural economic investigation data gained after field positioning survey, the level of susceptibility to schistosomiasis will be calculated in the lake region by using GIS spatial simulation and systematic analysis methods. In combination with the regularity and intensity of human and animal contacting with contaminated water, domestic water use habits and preventive measures, the spatial relationship between economy scale of lake region and epidemic area, the spatial characteristics of rural economy in epidemic area of schistosomiasis will be attained. Based on adaptive management theory, combined with schistosomiasis control strategies, the rational use of rich lake region resources including marshland, aquaculture, farmland, gravel, and so on and scientific ecological environment protection will be investigated to address the conflict between comprehensive utilization of resources, environmental protection, and control goal, which is widespread in traditional schistosomiasis control. This study will provide a mode for comprehensive schistosomiasis control and coordinated economic development in marshland and lake region.

鄱阳湖区是典型的湖沼型血吸虫重度流行区域，其洪、枯季节巨大的水位落差及其形成的面积广大的洲滩地，是血吸虫的寄主--钉螺的孳生地。湖区农村经济深受水情特征及血吸虫病的影响。利用遥感影像和GIS专题数据（植被、水文、土地利用、村镇、人口、产业和经济规模等），叠加野外定位调查获得的湖区受感染草洲分布、疫区血吸虫病数据库以及典型乡村经济调查数据，运用GIS空间模拟和系统分析方法，计算湖区血吸虫病易感等级，结合人畜接触疫水的规律与强度、生活用水习惯与防范措施、湖区农村经济规模与疫区空间关系等，得到血吸虫病疫区农村经济空间特征。运用适应性管理理论，结合血吸虫病防治策略，研究合理利用湖区丰富草洲、水产、耕地、砂石等资源，科学保护生态环境，协调传统血吸虫病防治中普遍存在的资源综合利用、环境保护与防治目标的矛盾。为湖沼型地区血吸虫病综合防治和农村经济协调发展提供可资借鉴的模式。

本项目通过对Landsat8 OLI\ Landsat7ETM+等遥感影像反演和提取鄱阳湖血吸虫流行区归一化植被指数（NDVI）、地表温度（LST）、土壤湿度（TCW），并结合湖底高程（DEM）等环境因子，结合二十世纪八十年代以来湖区钉螺调查系列数据，定量分析地理环境因子对钉螺分布的影响以及钉螺与不同地理环境因子之间的关系；利用鄱阳湖区社会经济、血吸虫病数据以及典型乡村实地调查资料，研究了鄱阳湖区农村经济特征与血吸虫疫区关系等。主要结论如下：.（1）鄱阳湖区螺情与孳生地NDVI和DEM显著相关，活螺平均密度与NDVI相关性为0.756（P<0.01），与DEM相关性为-0.51（P<0.05）；螺情分别与LST和TCW呈弱相关，活螺平均密度与LST相关性为-0.205（p>0.05）,与TCW相关性为-0.028（p>0.05）。验证了鄱阳湖区钉螺分布与植被和高程有密切关系。.（2）湖区钉螺分布具有明显的区域性，且与高程密切相关。8.5-14m高程活螺平均密度较大，对比历史分布记录和相关研究成果，鄱阳湖钉螺有向低高程迁移的趋势。.（3）鄱阳湖洲滩水位的变化直接影响着钉螺的空间分布，通过控制鄱阳湖水位进而改变钉螺生存环境可以达到制约钉螺孳生的效果和目标。.（4）鄱阳湖区农村经济一定程度上受到血吸虫病疫区的影响，但并非是决定因素。湖区粮食作物占绝大部分比例，其中水稻种植具有明显的规模优势和效率优势，是最主要的粮食种植品种，经济作物和其他作物播种比重很低。.（5）典型血吸虫疫区的渔业产值占比最大，种植业和畜牧业产值次之，而林业和农林牧渔服务业占比很小，加工业和第三产业发展落后；血吸虫疫区农村劳动力流失现象严重，农民收入来源方式少，收入低。.（6）血吸虫疫区与非疫区的农村经济结构的差异正在逐渐缩小，表明随着居民的血吸虫病感染率已经降至或维持在较低水平，血吸虫病对农村经济影响正在逐渐弱化，显现了血吸虫病防治的积极效果，另一方面也给湖区农村经济发展的产业结构调整提出了新的命题，需要地方政府和社会各界予以关注。