基于生态理性的跨期环境风险认知的主观概率和效用研究

The public disregarded PM2.5 in the past, but are now in a panic with it now. This phenomenon indicates the hudge difference between their perception of temporal and intertemporal environmental risks. Such a difference generates many irrational actions, which has become a social problem. It not only harms the interests of common people, but also hinders government's work in environmental risk management. However, previous studies have failed to explore the properties and intrinsic mechanism of intertemporal environmental risk perception, and lack a systematic analysis of public pyschology and behavior in the process. This study, from the viewpoint of ecological rationality, targets public perception of intertemporal environmental risks.Via an experiment, it is to investiagte people's perception of time, probability, and outcome, these three attributes, and their preference, and examine the effects on and tradeoffs among preferences in the perception, from the perpective of psychology, decision making, and behavioral economics. Finally, with subjective probability and uitlity as the intermediaries, the intrinsic mechanism of intertemporal environmental risk perception is uncovered, and in turn an intertemporal environmental risk perception model is established. This study is to enhance theoretical researches on environmental risks, and lend the government a helping hand in mastering the risk perception of common people. Thus, the government can develop specific management and communication policies, which can better guide people's perception, help them tackle environmental risks like PM2.5, take correct measures, and behave in a green life style.

公众对PM2.5过去的漠视与现在的过度反应,表明公众对即期和跨期环境风险的认知有很大差异。这种差异引起的非理性行为所折射出的社会问题不仅有损公众自身的利益，也给政府的环境风险管理工作带来困难。现有的研究并没有深入地探讨公众跨期环境风险认知的特点与内在机制，也缺乏对公众心理、行为等方面的系统分析。本项目以公众跨期环境风险认知为研究对象，从生态理性的视角，运用实验方法研究公众对跨期环境风险的时间、概率和结果三个属性认知的特点与偏好，并从心理学、决策科学和行为经济学的角度探究其认知的影响因素以及各偏好之间的权衡折衷。最后，通过分析主观概率及效用揭示跨期环境风险认知的内在机制，建立跨期环境风险认知模型。本研究将深化学术界对跨期环境风险的认识,并帮助政府了解公众对环境风险的态度,制定有效的管理和沟通政策,从而使人们更好的面对诸如PM2.5之类的环境风险，采取合理的环境行为，以促进绿色生活方式的形成

本项目从生态理性视角出发审视了公众对跨期环境风险的认知。首先，结合心理学最新进展进行研究设计，考察了性格、价值观、科学文化知识与计算能力以及环境关注度等主观因素对于环境风险认知的作用。其次，应用决策理论设计了相关行为实验，着重分析了概率、结果、时间和社会距离等风险客观属性对于环境风险认知的影响。再次，结合行为经济学理论提出了跨期环境风险认知的“主观概率—效用”心理机制模型，定量分析了模型的参数特征和时间延迟对于主观概率判断和效用认知的影响，并将模型扩展使其包含社会距离和地理距离的因素。最后，根据项目研究结果，提出了环境风险认知的生态理性框架，综合反映了主客观因素的影响以及心理机制。这些研究有效地填补了当前研究中的空白，深刻揭示了环境风险认知内在规律与过程，深化了学术界对跨期环境风险的认识。此外，针对我国当前环境风险沟通与管理的现状，基于本项目的研究结果,提出了一系列切实可行的政策建议,以便政府可以制定有效的管理和沟通政策,使人们更好的面对诸如PM2.5之类的环境风险，采取合理的环境行为，促进绿色生活方式的形成。