典型区花生黄曲霉毒素污染关键影响因子甄别与风险预警研究

Aflatoxin contamination in peanuts is a global problem. It is the main risk factor effecting peanuts consumption safety and exports. There is a more serious contamination of peanut aflatoxin in China. Therefore, it is scientifically significant and practically valuable to understand the characteristics of aflatoxin contamination in peanut in regions, find out the critical factors effecting aflatoxin production in peanut in different regions and explore the prevention and control measures. The project intends to probe into the relationship between aflatoxin generation and relevant factors such as climatic conditions, tillage, soil type, resistant varieties, toxigenic strains, micro ecological environment in typical areas that is susceptible to aflatoxin contamination; and then discriminate the critical factors; establish predict model of peanut aflatoxin contamination in typical areas of China; and find out the effective prevention and control techniques and measures for peanut aflatoxin contamination. The development of this project will provide theoretical basis and technical support for the prevention and control of peanut aflatoxin contamination in China.

花生黄曲霉毒素污染是全球性问题，是威胁花生安全消费和出口贸易的最主要风险因素。我国是花生黄曲霉毒素污染较严重的国家，因此，了解我国典型区域花生黄曲霉毒素污染特点，摸清不同区域中花生黄曲霉毒素发生的关键影响因子并探讨预警防控措施具有重要的科学意义和实用价值。本项目拟以易发生黄曲霉毒素污染的典型地区为对象，基于典型区的不同气候条件、耕作模式、土壤类型、抗性品种、产毒菌株、微生态环境等因素，探索黄曲霉毒素发生与上述影响因素的关联性，甄别典型区花生黄曲霉毒素污染关键影响因子，建立适合我国典型区的花生黄曲霉毒素污染预警模型；并探寻花生黄曲霉毒素污染高效防控技术与措施。本项目的开展将为我国花生黄曲霉毒素污染预警与防控提供理论基础和技术支持。

花生是我国主要油料作物和优势出口农产品，在中国和世界油料生产中占有重要地位。然而花生易受真菌侵染产生黄曲霉毒素，严重威胁人体健康，已成为影响我国花生消费安全和世界贸易的主要制约因素。基于连续十年花生主产区的黄曲霉毒素污染数据和产毒真菌分布以及收集权威机构发布的品种信息、产地土壤数据与气候数据，探明了我国花生黄曲霉毒素污染消长变化及其与影响因素的关系，确定了中国花生黄曲霉毒素预警模型的核心关键参数为：纬度、8-20时降水量、平均气压和日平均气温。建立了模型分类规则，即以高纬度区域（≥ 40°N）、低纬度区域（≤21°N）与低温区域（日平均气温≤16.8ºC）建立分类规则，并以此建立了规则分类—平衡取样—随机森林模型，当分类阈值为20μg/kg和5μg/kg时，未超限样本预测准确率分别为98.94%和96.97%，超限样本分类准确率均为100%。同其他常用分类器相比较，建立的预警模型具有较高的预测精度，实现了对黄曲霉毒素污染的预测，为从源头开展花生黄曲霉毒素风险防控提供了关键技术支撑。