公交桥接疏运系统动态建模与优化

In case of an Urban Rail Transit (URT) operational disruption lasting for a long period of time, services of evacuation and alternative transportation are necessary for all or part of affected URT passengers by bridging interrupted URT stations and operational URT stations using bus transit service, which is referred as the bus bridging evacuation and transportation sevice. It plays an important role on improving the quality of emergency management and service reliability of city’s public transportation system during the URT operational disruption..The bus bridging evacuation and transportation optimization problem has the following three features of coupling between bus dispatching and routing, evacuation demand exceeding bus capacity, and non-predetermined bus depots，to which existing studies have paid much less attention. To optimize the bus bridging evacuation systems, the contents in this research are as follows: Firstly, the bus bridging evacuation process will be treated as a dynamic system, and its evolution mechanism will be revealed from a system perspective, a system state equation and a dynamic deduction model will be accordingly set up. Secondly, a combinatorial optimization mechanism will be proposed, and the bus vehicle dispatching strategy, bus route planning strategy and bus circulation strategy will be designed. Finally, an optimization model of the bus bridging evacuation and transportation system and a comprehensive meta-heuristic algorithm based on deduction scheme will be proposed to optimize both bus vehicle dispatching sub-program and bus route planning one. Several cases will be studied to validate the proposed mechanism, the strategies, the programming model and its solving algorithm. .Some research methods, such as graph theory, system modeling and simulation, experimental validation and feedback, and metaheuristic algorithm design, etc., will be comprehensively applied in this research. The achievements of the research will provide not only optimization theories and methods of bus bridging evacuation and transportation problem in case of long-time URT operational disruptions, but also universal algorithms for the bus-based evacuation problem and the vehicle routing problem.

在轨道交通线路较长时间中断运营期间，用公共汽车交通（简称公交）桥接中断车站与正常运营车站，为受影响的轨道乘客提供应急疏散和替代运输服务，是提高城市公共交通系统应急管理水平及服务可靠性的必要手段。公交桥接疏运问题具有高度动态性和不确定性。本研究针对该问题的应急车辆调度和疏运线路规划互耦、疏运需求超过车辆运载能力、公交派车点非完全预先确定等特质，首先运用动态系统建模方法解析公交桥接疏运系统演化机理，建立系统状态方程与动态推演模型以搭建系统动态推演环境；进而设计面向应急车辆调度、疏运路线规划、车辆循环疏运的组合优化机制与策略；基于此构建公交桥接疏运系统优化模型和基于方案推演的元启发式求解算法，并进行验证。研究综合运用图论、系统建模与仿真、实验验证与反馈、仿生优化算法设计等方法。研究成果可为公交桥接疏运问题提供优化理论与方法支持，也可为一般的公交应急疏散问题和车辆路径规划问题提供普适性的求解算法。

在地铁线路发生较长时间的运营中断事件下，从公交既有停车场或首末站调派公交车辆，为中断地铁车站的受影响乘客提供快速、有效的公交桥接疏运服务，是提高城市公共交通系统应急联动管理水平和服务可靠性的必要手段。本项目综合运用运筹学、交通行为学、公交线路设计和车辆调度等理论和方法，深入开展了轨道交通运营中断下公交桥接疏运系统优化理论与方法研究，项目取得的主要研究成果如下：设计了公交桥接疏运应急责任区划分策略和公交车辆应急调度策略；开展了轨道交通运营中断下乘客二次出行方式选择行为调查与模型标定，建立了公交桥接疏运需求推估模型；建立了公交桥接疏运服务启动时机优化模型和算法，对是否启动和何时启动公交桥接疏运服务进行优化；建立了公交车辆桥接疏运应急调度优化模型和算法，对公交桥接疏运线路和车辆调度方案进行优化；在此基础上，利用调查和实测数据，对上述模型及算法进行了验证。研究成果可进一步丰富公交桥接疏运系统优化理论和方法，也可为我国大城市公共交通运输管理部门启动和实施公共交通应急联动运输服务提供方案决策支持。围绕项目研究成果，发表SCI论文11篇、EI期刊论文1篇、核心期刊论文2篇，授权2项发明专利、2项实用新型专利和1项软件著作权，培养硕士研究生6名，达到了项目预期成果要求。项目经费17万元，支出14.1111万元，结余2.8889万元，剩余研究经费用于项目后续研究所需的会议、差旅和国际交流费用支出。