长三角农村转型下的社区养老设施空间量化模型与设计研究

Focusing on the two proactive features on elderly issue brought by the rural transformation in Yangtze River Delta, the poor use of “potential supporting resource for elderly”, and the new set of “demands for elderly provision” by returning migrant workers, the research firstly explores their internal relations and interactive mechanism, and then by classifying and matching the “potential supporting resource for elderly” and the multivariate “demands for elderly provision” in rural community, clarifies the lack of certain functions based on the “potential supporting resource for elderly” and constructs the “Potential Supporting Resource for Elderly + Demands” model of rural community. Secondly, through the approaches of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multi-Objective Optimization (MOP), as well as combined with the planning and architectural design method, the research carries out system analysis on the community elderly facilities which complement the current functional loss, and establishes the quantitative index subsystem and the design method subsystem which are further carried out coupling analysis and calculating modeling to construct the spatial quantitative model of rural community elderly facilities. Lastly, based on the spatial quantitative model, the research modularizes the spatial organization of rural community elderly facilities, combined with the empirical and the public participation, and puts forward to a series of architectural design methods aiming at the maximum use of available resources and the respond to diversified demands, providing universal standards and design rules for the construction of rural community elderly facilities under the background of rural transformation in Yangtze River Delta.

针对长三角农村转型给养老问题带来的“潜在养老资源利用率低下”与“返乡农民工作用下产生新型养老需求”两个先发性特征，首先探索二者的内在关系和相互作用机制，通过对农村社区“潜在养老资源”与多元养老需求的分类和匹配，明晰潜在养老资源架构下老人需求的功能缺失，建构农村社区“潜在养老资源 + 需求”模型。其次，通过层次分析、多目标优化等，对补强功能缺失的空间载体——社区养老设施进行系统分析，并结合规划与建筑设计方法，建立农村社区养老设施量化指标子系统和设计方法子系统，进而对两个子系统进行耦合分析和演算建模，构建农村社区养老设施空间量化模型。最后，以空间量化模型为依托，将长三角农村社区养老设施空间组合模块化，结合实证与公众参与，提出该地区农村转型下针对“有效资源的最大利益化”和应对“需求差异性”的社区养老设施设计集成，为长三角农村转型下的社区养老设施建设提供普适性标准和设计依据。

近年来，我国老龄化状况发展呈现城乡倒置格局，农村人口的养老问题日渐严峻，集中体现为快速增长的养老需求与长期滞后的养老服务供给体系之间的矛盾。本研究以既存设施问题为出发点，基于资源和需求两个方向进行探究，提出“农村养老资源”与“农村老人需求”是当前农村老年服务体系和设施建设提升的外在驱动力与内在驱动力，进而对这两种驱动力的前提、基本概念以及主要内容进行了系统的阐述，定义了作为农村养老资源的经济、建设、服务与精神资源的主要内容，归纳农村老年人需求的普遍性与特殊性、动态性与多样性、当下性与未来性的基础认知。研究进而一方面梳理与解读农村老年服务体系的内在机制，定义“模式”为社会环境限定的资源供需框架，“服务”为资源供需流动的具体组织形式，以及“设施”作为资源接收终端的实体表现，并归纳从模式、服务再到设施的养老资源流动渠道；另一方面深挖农村老年人的养老需求，运用环境行为学的研究方法，对农村老年人进行实地调研以及量化分析，并探索从对象到需求再到设施的老年服务设施的设计导向。最后，研究系统构建农村养老服务体系的整体内容框架，在政策指导、服务架构与设施空间三个层面提出具有针对性的营建策略：政策上提出经济、保障、体制和文化四方面的政策支持要求；服务上提出多类型老年服务需求、多方面养老服务资源整合、多元化服务主体和根据农村社区组织形成的养老服务组织架构；设施空间上提出基于要素综合的农村老年设施规划，以及从使用者出发的农村老年空间设计策略，为未来农村社区养老服务体系与设施建设提供参考。