东北西部农牧交错带玉米种植结构调整的区域经济效应研究

According to the national important needs of corn planting structure adjustment at the "Sickle-Shape" area, this project is addressing the effect of corn structure adjustment on the regional economy using the theoretical method of agricultural geography and economic geography and GIS spatial analysis technology at the west typical agro-pastoral transitional zone of northeast China. This research will focus on the following parts. Firstly, on the basis of analysis for the evolution process and characteristics of corn planting structure adjustment at the west typical agro-pastoral transitional zone of northeast China, this project will reveal the influence factors of corn planting structure dynamics from the two aspects of macro and micro. Secondly, this research will built regional economic effect model of corn planting structure adjustment and quantitatively measure the economic effect of corn structure adjustment on the background of combination of planting and feeding, characteristic planting and crop rotation at the west typical agro-pastoral transitional zone of northeast China. Thirdly, this project will further propose the space optimization countermeasures of corn planting structure at the west typical agro-pastoral transitional zone of northeast China, and then provide a theoretical basis and reference for corn planting structure adjustment at the study area.

针对国家“镰刀弯”地区玉米种植结构调整的需求，以东北西部农牧交错带为例，采用农业地理学、经济地理学的理论方法和GIS空间分析技术，在分析东北西部农牧交错带玉米种植结构演变过程与特征的基础之上，从宏观和微观两个角度分析东北西部农牧交错带玉米种植结构变动的影响因素，构建东北西部农牧交错带玉米种植结构调整的区域经济效应模型，定量测度在种养结合、特色种植、轮作三种类型下玉米结构调整产生的经济效应，进而提出东北西部农牧交错带玉米种植结构的空间优化调控对策，为研究区玉米种植结构调整提供理论依据和决策参考。

针对国家“镰刀弯”地区玉米种植结构调整的需求，以东北“镰刀弯”地区为例，采用农业地理学、经济地理学的理论方法和GIS空间分析技术，分析东北“镰刀弯”地区种植结构演变过程与特征，发现2003年以来，东北“镰刀弯”地区粮食种植格局发生明显变化，玉米、水稻播种面积占比显著上升，相对低产的大豆播种面积占比明显下降；东北“镰刀弯”地区粮食产量整体呈波动上升，玉米占据主导地位。除大豆外，肉类总产量、化肥施肥量、农机总动力、农民人均纯收入、人均GDP、工业总产值、价格、播种面积对“镰刀弯”地区粮食作物产量具有显著的正向影响。当前东北“镰刀弯”地区玉米种植结构调整面临农产品加工业发展滞后，农产品品牌培育不足，农业科技支撑不足，农户收益减半，种植结构调整的补贴品种有限，资金补贴力度不够，农业服务能力低，农业基础设施薄弱等问题的制约。东北“镰刀弯”地区多目标优化调整结果显示，优化后研究区水稻、玉米、马铃薯的播种面积减少，小麦、大豆、花生、烤烟、甜菜、谷子面积增加，符合国家“镰刀弯”地区种植结构调整计划。整体上看，优化过后研究区综合效益降低了652.7亿元，但是为东北“镰刀弯”地区带来了生态效益和节水效益。因此在转型期，国家必须给与大力支持，通过种植其它作物或者发展其它产业等帮助农户找到可持续的替代生计途径。最后，项目根据比较优势理论和前述研究结果，划出玉米-大豆轮作区、玉米调减杂粮杂豆种植区、特色油料经济作物种植区、种养结合区，进而提出东北“镰刀弯”地区种植结构调控对策，为研究区玉米种植结构调整提供理论依据和决策参考。