退果还林工程景观弹性评估及对不同利益相关者成本效益影响

A research hot spot in both comprehensive physical geography and landscape ecology is improving landscape functioning and sustainable household livelihood. The proposed study focuses on projects of converting orchard to forest, specifically in the case study area of Xunwu County that is located at the ecological buffering zone of Southern Jiangxi Province. Multiple methods will be employed including remote sensing, field sampling and validation, and geospatial simulation, to quantify the landscape dynamics and associated changes in typical ecosystem services at Xunwu over the past twenty years. The effects of converting orchard to forest on landscape resilience will be studied based on theories and models from landscape ecology, particularly the adaptive capacity theory. The associated effects on the sustainable livelihood of rural households, i.e., the dependence of households on local landscape and driving factors, will be investigated by household survey, logistic regressions, and difference-in-difference analysis of participating and non-participating households. Furthermore, policy design for improving landscape functioning and sustaining human wellbeing in different social-ecological scenarios will be explored based on landscape sustainability theory, using specifically landscape resilience as a stewardship indicator. This proposed research will better inform scientific assessment of ecological projects, facilitate ecological construction and further improve human wellbeing.

景观弹性提升与农户可持续生计维持是综合自然地理学与景观地理学研究的热点问题，本项目聚焦退果还林工程，以赣南生态屏障区江西寻乌县为案例区，综合遥感解译、野外采样、农户访谈和地理模拟等手段，获取过去20年寻乌县景观信息和典型生态系统服务功能变化；基于景观生态学理论和模型，分析果园开发景观弹性。基于农户访谈和模型模拟，阐明农户与景观系统的依赖关系，利用logistic回归模型研究影响农户参与退果还林工程因素，利用双差分方法阐明生态工程实施对参与农户和非参与农户可持续生计影响，以及成本-效益动态关系；基于景观可持续性理论，构建不同区域发展情况，以景观弹性测度为依据提出耦合生态功能提升和居民福祉提高的景观可持续性建议。研究结果可为科学评估生态工程效益和居民福祉提升提供科学参考。

人文因素在人地协同和区域环境变化中的关键作用越来越受到学术界的关注，本项目立足于景观生态学前沿领域景观格局和过程及人文因素相互作用和赣南山区快速景观变化对农户可持续生计的影响，以生态文明建设实施示范区江西省赣南退果还林区为研究区，综合地理学、景观生态学、计量经济学等方法，研究退果还林景观工程实施对农户可持续生计的影响，进而寻求景观保护和农户生计维持的可持续发展途径。重点开展以下研究，（1）退果还林区景观格局演变态势分析，（2）基于Agent的退果还林生态工程实施可持续性研究框架；（2）退果还林区景观变化对农户可持续生计影响。本项目通过多学科的交叉，实现了研究目标，完成了预期成果计划，研究聚焦于“景观变化过程与人类活动导致环境异常的识别与调控”等科学问题，使人地协同的综合自然地理学在赣南山区得到了深化，在理论和方法上有一定的创新，具有重要的学术指导意义。本研究所提出的典型案例退果还林工程、生计模式、调控对策研究不仅仅对赣南山区景观可持续性发展具有科学指导作用和一定的应用价值，本研究对于生态工程实施科学评估具有推广应用价值。