有偏技术进步下产能利用不足发生机制研究

Biased technological progress might lead to insufficient effective demands via the disparity of production factors distribution, thereby reducing utilization rate of production capacity. If there existing an opposite supply structure of production factors, enterprises can never form valid production factors matching, ulteriorly aggravating the risk of excess production capacity. However, biased technological progress and dissimilation of production factors structure could also induce an expansion of aggregate demand because of agglomeration effect as well as upstream and downstream relevance, thereby alleviating excess production capacity. This project plans to study what the final impact will be on utilization level of production capacity, after multiple effects of directed technological progress and supply structure of production factors counteract. The main contents are: ①present situation evaluation on changes of China’s excess production capacity; ②crossed impacts biased technological progress and dissimilation of production factors structure have on utilization rate of production capacity; ③applying DRC-CGE Model to run a general equilibrium simulation test to determine how excess production capacity happens; ④technological causes and countermeasures for excess production capacity in China’s enterprises. This project will be conducive to finding the patterns with which technological structure changes enterprises’ utilization level of production capacity, discovering the technological causes of China’s excess production capacity, and eventually providing policy support system for some industrial departments to alleviate the serious excess production capacity conflicts.

有偏技术进步可能通过要素分配差距导致有效需求不足，进而造成产能利用率下降。若同时存在与之相反的要素供给结构，则导致企业无法形成有效的要素匹配，进一步加剧了产能过剩风险。不过，有偏技术进步和要素结构异化也可能因集聚效应和上下游关联导致总需求扩张，使得产能过剩也可能呈弱化趋势。本项目拟研究技术进步方向和要素供给结构的多元效应经过相互抵消后，对产能利用水平的最终影响方向。主要内容为：①中国产能过剩变动的现状评价；②有偏技术进步和要素结构异化对产能利用率的交叉作用机制；③运用DRC-CGE模型对产能过剩发生机制的一般均衡模拟分析；④中国微观企业产能过剩的技术成因调研及应对路径与措施。本项目将有助于揭示企业产能利用水平随着技术结构变化的变动规律，找到中国产能过剩的技术成因，从而给出一些工业部门化解严重产能过剩矛盾的政策支撑体系。

近些年来，工业产能过剩矛盾已成为中国经济面临的突出问题和主要风险之一，造成资源严重浪费和效率损失，制约了技术进步和产业竞争力提升，甚至可能使系统性金融风险加剧。这很可能与我国工业化进程中的强制性技术变迁有很大关系。一些部门过分依赖科技成果的跨国转移，技术进步过早偏向资本，又不得不适应当时劳动力相对充裕的禀赋结构，选择要素互补的生产函数，资本和劳动投入同时扩张，积累了巨大的工业产能，一旦遇到城乡二元转型引起的要素禀赋转变，冗余的工业产能无法及时退出，就容易发生产能过剩。本项目在国内外现有研究基础上，基于对中国各个层面产能利用水平的测算结果，得到了有偏技术进步导致产能过剩的机理（包括短期与长期），并经过实证检验发现——①只有在劳动力、土地等要素城乡流动导致的要素禀赋结构发生变化，且生产函数不足以适应性调整的情况下，产能利用不足才会大面积发生；②在同等的要素禀赋转换的冲击下，资本偏向型技术进步越明显行业或地区，越容易面临产能过剩压力。本项目研究有助于找到中国产能过剩的技术成因，有助于新时代以实体经济为着力点推动经济高质量发展。目前已发表18篇学术成果和1篇政策分析报告，起到了良好的社会效果。